Vanderbilt Men’s Basketball (20-11, 8-10 SEC) is headed into the SEC Tournament as the No. 12 seed. After ending its regular season with back-to-back losses at the hands of Arkansas and Georgia, the Commodores’ 8-10 record was the same as Arkansas, Georgia and Mississippi State. However, their head-to-head loss to each team led to the lowest seeding of the four. 

The ‘Dores will travel just down the road to Bridgestone Arena to take on No. 13 Texas in the SEC Tournament — a rematch of their Feb. 8 matchup in Memorial Gymnasium. While most NCAA Tournament experts view the Commodores as a “lock” for the postseason, a win against Texas would help solidify their place in the Big Dance for good. (It would remove any concern about bid-stealers or a potential trip to Dayton for the First Four.)

Texas finished 6-12 in the SEC but needs to win this game with its postseason life on the line. The Longhorns are currently among the “First Four Out” in Joe Lunardi’s ESPN Bracketology and will look to make a run in the SEC Tournament to climb the rankings and find a place in the field. Here’s what Vanderbilt needs to do to crush Texas’ tournament hopes and cement its own. 

NBA Tre

Tre Johnson is one of the country’s most electrifying young players, and Vanderbilt’s number one priority should be to slow him down. The first-year guard out of Garland, Texas, has been the Longhorns’ best player this year, averaging 20.2 points per game — best in the SEC. His 39.5% 3-point shooting clip and his 6’6” frame make him a nightmare for any team to stop. He has quickly climbed draft boards in the early months of 2024. 

Johnson will almost certainly be a lottery pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, with the frame and skillset to succeed in the modern NBA landscape. Beyond that, though, Johnson has shown an ability to perform when the stakes are the highest. He poured in 24 points against UConn in December. He eclipsed 30 points for the first time in his career in an upset over No. 13 Texas A&M in January. He saved arguably his best for last, though, finishing February scoring 24, 32, 39 and 29 points against then-No. 2 Alabama, No. 15 Kentucky, South Carolina and Arkansas, respectively, in four straight games. 

Johnson’s pedigree is known, but Vanderbilt has the defenders to slow him down. MJ Collins Jr., Chris Manon and a healthy dose of AJ Hoggard small-ball could be all Vanderbilt needs to slow the superstar down. He scored just 15 points against the Commodores in the regular season (on 5-of-14 shooting).

Turnovers and triples

This game will be defined on the perimeter and in the passing lanes. 

Texas is one of the best teams in the country at protecting the ball — turning it over a measly 14.7% of possessions. The Longhorns’ 10.1 average turnovers per game rank just ahead of Vanderbilt’s 10.4 — the third and fourth lowest averages in the conference. 

The difference between the teams lies in how frequently each forces turnovers. Texas struggles, ranking 198th in the nation with a 16.8% rate of forced turnovers — and 11th in the SEC in turnovers forced per game. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, forces giveaways like few other teams in the country. Its 14.3 forced turnovers per game are tied for first in the SEC. 

If Manon, Collins, Hoggard and Tyler Tanner can perform as they usually do on defense, Vanderbilt should have no trouble controlling this game. Jumping the passing lanes and making Texas uncomfortable will go a long way toward the Black and Gold winning.

Texas is also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the SEC, ranking fifth in the conference in 3-point percentage at 36.3%. The Longhorns don’t shoot the long ball often — ranking 14th in the league in 3-pointers attempted — but they make sure to connect when they do. 

Expect Johnson, along with Arthur Kaluma, Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark — who are all shooting over 36% from downtown and averaging at least 10 points per game — to let it fly against Vanderbilt. The Commodores allow teams to convert the deep ball at a 37.2% clip, which ranks 344th in the country and last among all SEC teams.

A look forward

As if one matchup with the Lone Star state wasn’t enough, Vanderbilt — with a win — would get a second matchup in as many days with the Texans, this time with No. 5 Texas A&M. 

While the Aggies, a notoriously long team that’s excellent at rebounding (their 40.8 rebounds per game ranks third in the conference), would ordinarily pose a problem to the undersized Commodores, it wasn’t a problem when the two teams played in College Station on Feb. 26. The Aggies won the rebounding battle 44 to 38 but shot inefficiently as Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps, the team’s two leading scorers, went a combined 8-of-23 from the field. Vanderbilt won that game in its best road performance of the season thanks to gritty basketball — and some 3-point heroics from Tyler Nickel.

If Vanderbilt can get past Texas and upset the Aggies the next day, an 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament could be on the horizon. An opening day loss to the Longhorns would leave the team’s March Madness chances (mildly) shaky. A win and a loss would likely change nothing for the Commodores, who are currently an 11 seed — but not on the bubble — according to Lunardi.

Vanderbilt has the winning formula for both teams and knows what it needs to do to make a run. Whether it finds the level of consistency required to make that run is anyone’s best guess. 

The Commodores will take on the Longhorns in the SEC Tournament at 2:30 p.m. CDT on March 12 in Bridgestone Arena.