Vanderbilt Men’s Basketball is a scary team.
Sorry, let me add some context: Vanderbilt Men’s Basketball is a scary team to watch. Fans watch every game petrified of what they’re about to witness, knowing it’s either going to be one of the best games of the season or one that’s going to take multiple showers to wash off the stink from.
The three games that concluded the regular season embody this better than anything else. First, Vanderbilt had one of its most electric wins of the year against Missouri at home on Senior Night, thanks to a Tyler Nickel 3-pointer. That win basically locked Vanderbilt into an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, which the Commodores haven’t made it to since 2017.
With Vanderbilt a lock according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, the Commodores still had two more matches to improve their tournament seeding and bring some momentum with them to the SEC Tournament at Bridgestone Arena.
Did Vanderbilt do that? Absolutely not. It dropped one of its worst games of the season at home to Arkansas, sending every senior home silent, with the dud of the performance souring their final student section experience. Then, Vanderbilt traveled to Athens to take on Georgia with a chance to salvage a .500 SEC season.
The Commodores shot under 40% from the field and under 30% from downtown, all while going scoreless for over six minutes in the second half. Both of these performances put a huge asterisk on the Missouri win; the SEC Tournament now means much more to its March Madness hopes than originally thought. ESPN still gives Vanderbilt a 74% chance to get selected on Sunday, but anything could change with a bad showing against Texas.
Inside of Vanderbilt are two wolves: one wolf is the 2016-2017 Golden State Warriors — who went 72-9 — and the other is the 2023-2024 Detroit Pistons — who lost an NBA-record 28 games in a row. With a team that looks so different from game to game, which one will we see for the rest of this season? Will the tournament stakes elevate the Commodores to the same group that beat Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Missouri? Or will the lights be bright enough to blind the Black and Gold, having them look like the team that lost to Mississippi State, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Georgia?
And if you’re wondering how a 20-11 (8-10 in the SEC) team could look so polarizing, here are a few things you should look for in postseason play.
Neutral site nerves
Memorial Magic was at its fullest potential this season, propelling all players to their peak performance. There were two court storms, a multitude of game-altering shots and a Chris Mañon block whose photo should be hung in the Louvre — and will be framed in my future office.
But now there’s no more magic to rely on. Memorial Gymnasium has begun its hibernation, ready to roar again when Vanderbilt Volleyball takes the stage in August. It’s no secret that Vanderbilt was a significantly better team at home this year. The Commodores were 6-3 at home during conference play, a stark comparison to the 2-7 record they recorded on the road — the two wins coming against LSU and Texas A&M. Clearly, the team thrives off the momentum of the Commodore faithful and shrinks when faced with the sound of opposing screams. But what happens when both collide?
Every game will be at a neutral site from here on out. Vanderbilt has only competed at a neutral site three times this season, going 2-1 at the Charleston Classic. Of its opponents in those games, only Drake — Vanderbilt’s sole loss — is projected to make the NCAA Tournament. With this small sample size and the lackluster competition, Vanderbilt’s future will rely on its ability to conquer untested neutral locations against much more talented opponents, a scary sight for a team that struggles with momentum.
Then there’s the mystery of fan turnout. How loud and committed can the Commodore faithful be? The SEC Tournament, while hosted in Nashville at Bridgestone, takes place during spring break, slashing the team’s potential student turnout significantly. Can the locals be loud enough to push their team through tough stretches? Which Commodore faithful will travel for the NCAA Tournament? The closest location to Nashville in the first round is Lexington, Kentucky, which is approximately a four-hour drive from campus.
Will students make that drive? Will the school’s administration, who bussed select students to Xavier for the NIT quarterfinals three years ago, once again provide opportunities to enhance student attendance?
Either way, the Commodores should operate under the assumption that they’ll have to manufacture their own momentum and produce in an unfamiliar environment. This means keeping level heads and limiting runs — something they’re notoriously bad at.
Keeping composure
Vanderbilt ended its regular season with a six-minute scoring drought against Georgia. The 15-0 run stretched the Bulldogs’ lead to 17. This is not new territory for Vanderbilt, as giving up runs is as much a part of its identity as the black-and-gold color scheme it dons.
If you want to know how bad Vanderbilt is at staying composed during opponent scoring runs, take a look at this graph by Evan Miyakawa.
You might be wondering where Vanderbilt is on the graph. I get it, I couldn’t find the “V” logo without some assistance myself. Look by the title of the graph and you’ll find it.
Vanderbilt is by far the worst team in the country at keeping opponents away from 10-0 scoring runs. For more context, this graph was posted Feb. 19; the last game represented was Vanderbilt’s loss at Tennessee. Vanderbilt has since been outscored by 20 in the second half against Kentucky, blew a 10-point lead in the second half in its win against Ole Miss, barely hung onto a 12-point lead against Texas A&M and then imploded against Arkansas and Georgia. The graph may be outdated, but the updated version may be even worse.
Conference and NCAA Tournaments are all about managing chaos — it’s how UMBC and St. Peter’s had their sensational first-round upsets and how Jack Gohlke became a national hero to everyone outside the state of Kentucky. Some teams, like Alabama or New Mexico, are agents of chaos. Their fast-paced, efficient play will send opponents into frenzies.
Who is AJ Hoggard?
When AJ Hoggard transferred to Vanderbilt, he was marketed as the new face of the program. The graduate transfer from Michigan State was supposed to bear the offensive load and contribute as a scorer and facilitator. It’s now safe to say that his impact this season has been underwhelming.
Hoggard has taken a dip in almost every statistical category this season compared to last, much of it because his teammates — players like Jason Edwards and Devin McGlockton — have stepped up around him. Another piece of Hoggard’s slide, though, is his inconsistency.
The 6’4 guard is shooting 35.8% from the field — his lowest since his first year in East Lansing — and 28.3% from downtown, which is his lowest since his sophomore year. His scoring numbers — which recently dipped below 10 points per game — are equally as confusing. On any night, Hoggard could give his team a strong 15 points but will then follow that performance up with a two-field goal game.
This season, Hoggard has scored 18 against Nevada, 17 against LSU, 18 against Mississippi State and an emphatic 21 against Missouri. But on the flip side, he’s scored five points or less seven times this season, including a goose egg against Texas A&M and a two-point, 0-for-9 shooting performance in his last match against Georgia.
One thing that has remained consistent is Hoggard’s distributive abilities, as he can rack up at least five dimes on his worst nights. If shooters like Edwards and Tyler Nickel can stay hot, Hoggard’s passing will keep Vanderbilt in games. He’s the most battle-tested player on the roster, with four years of tournament experience under his belt. His impact will be critical to the team’s success from here on out, and his inconsistency from day to day will be the biggest contributor to Vanderbilt’s overwhelming success or crumbling downfall.
His role as a scorer, distributor and leader will be tested every game, and it’s up to him to choose what player he wants to become. Commodore Nation should hope it’s the player they saw against Missouri and not the one who played these last two games.
Vanderbilt will open its SEC Tournament journey in Bridgestone Arena against Texas on Wednesday, March 12, at 2:30 p.m. CDT.
