Vanderbilt Women’s Basketball (14-3, 1-2) has dropped multiple games in a row for the first time this season. The team dominated its nonconference schedule en route to a 13-1 record, and with a win against Georgia to open up SEC play, the program was off to its best start in almost two decades. There have been some concerns about how this Vanderbilt team would adjust to conference play, especially with the increased talent in the SEC compared to last year. These concerns were overwhelmingly validated by noncompetitive losses to both Kentucky and Ole Miss. The Commodores are now facing a tough uphill battle, with their most challenging matchup yet against No. 6 LSU (18-0, 3-0) on the horizon.
The LSU Tigers have continued to dominate for their third straight season despite losing Angel Reese to the WNBA draft and Hailey Van Lith to TCU. The 2023 National Champions are currently 18-0 this season — the only team still undefeated in the SEC. Most recently, the Tigers emerged victorious in a nailbiter on the road against No. 16 Tennessee, featuring a jaw-dropping game-winner from junior Kailyn Gilbert. Junior guard Flau’Jae Johnson has continued her growth as a star, emerging as the team’s top option with almost 20 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the field and adding over 2.5 stocks (steals and blocks) per game. The Tigers might be at the highest point of their season so far and will now defend their home floor against the Commodores, who are currently on the complete opposite side of the spectrum.
Vanderbilt has only a 19.5% chance of exiting Baton Rouge with a win, according to ESPN Analytics, but as Kevin Garnett has said, ‘Anything is possible.’ Here are some of the stats and notes that could flip the script on the Commodores’ season.
Control the pace of play
Head coach Shea Ralph had a few words on what she felt her team could do differently going forward after the loss to Ole Miss.
“We have to control the tempo a little better,” said Ralph. “We have to lock up defensively, and we can’t give them so many open looks and buckets.”
The LSU Tigers are a perfect chance to measure how well the Commodores can control the pace and defend. The two teams have similar adjusted tempos according to Torvik, both sitting at 74 possessions per 40 minutes despite the Commodores forcing almost 10 more turnovers defensively.
The difference is that, while the Commodores like to press, the Tigers get out and run. Off any rebound or inbound, it’s likely that two LSU defenders are already leaking out for an outlet pass — usually setting them up for fastbreak opportunities. This has proved effective, as the Tigers have averaged 28 fast-break points per game in SEC play. The Commodores, on the other hand, have only allowed 9.3 fast-break points per game in conference play. Ralph and Co. have yet to see a transition game like LSU’s this season, so look for some unique strategic changes on Monday.
While it’s doubtful that Ralph will take her foot off the press, as it’s become such a massive part of Vanderbilt’s identity, the guards at the top of the key will likely have to drop back once a shot is up to prevent LSU’s dominant transition offense. Whether that affects Ralph’s ability to call the press is unknown, but with LSU’s ability to get the ball up the floor, the press might not be very effective anyway. Either way, LSU is going to challenge the Commodores’ strategy and discipline in a way they have yet to experience, which could either be greatly rewarding or disastrously torturous.
Defending inside the arc
The second half of Ralph’s statement revolved around defending and preventing open looks. Let’s say that Vanderbilt is able to successfully halt the Tigers’ transition and force them into a half-court offense. What should the Commodores expect then?
Well, unlike the last two games, it won’t be a 3-point barrage. Despite pouring in nine 3-pointers against Arkansas to start SEC play, LSU has only made one 3-pointer on 14 attempts in the last two games — with that sole 3-pointer occurring in the first quarter against Tennessee. Everything in LSU coach Kim Mulkey’s offense occurs inside of the 3-point arc, but it’s not all grit-and-grind like you’d expect. Mulkey effectively game plans for off-ball screens to free up scorers in the high post for mid-range and iso opportunities. Pick and rolls are used to send guards downhill and create post-up opportunities that can force the help defense to scramble if they elect to send a double.
This offensive scheme is going to put a lot of emphasis on the bigs, like Khamil Pierre and Aiyana Mitchell, to be active and vocal. There are a lot of moving parts, so their communication and help defense is going to impact the majority of shots both inside and outside of the paint. This also means that the savvier defenders like Jane Nwaba and Leilani Kapinus are going to have to fill more big-esque roles by helping the helper and rebounding when Pierre and Mitchell have to step out to contest the mid-range.
This is all easier said than done, as LSU is coming off an 89-point night against a ranked opponent with only a single 3-point basket. The important thing for the Commodores to do is accept that they’re not going to get a stop every time and take advantage of the opportunities they get off of misses. The best defense against a team like LSU is gaining momentum and applying pressure, which forces bad shots, frustration and miscommunications.
The second unit
For headlines, the story of this game is going to come down to the big-name matchup between the more experienced Johnson and Aneesah Morrow going toe-to-toe against Music City’s emerging stars in Pierre and Mikayla Blakes. Both duos average roughly 40 combined points per game and have been recognized in national media for their dominance. But while those four will certainly be the players to watch, the game’s strongest impact will come from further down the depth chart.
For example, the aforementioned Gilbert not only had the game-winning shot but scored 22 on the night. This isn’t shocking for her; she’s scored over 15 points in each game since conference play started. What is shocking, however, is that she comes off the bench. Gilbert is a leading candidate for SEC 6th Woman of the Year, dominating in only 20 minutes of playing time. It’s not just Gilbert; LSU’s entire bench unit is effective, averaging 31.7 points per game in SEC play. For comparison, Vanderbilt’s bench only scores 11.3 points per conference contest. Of course, the argument can be made that Gilbert inflates those numbers because of her offensive prowess, but without her LSU’s bench still averages 13.3 points per game — still more than Vanderbilt.
Ralph also doesn’t empty the bench often. She ran an eight-person rotation against Georgia, with four of her starters playing almost 30 minutes each. But with LSU’s up-and-down play style, the Tigers’ fresh legs are going to tire out the Commodores’ starters. Their bench is going to have to step up and compete. Kapinus, Mitchell and Madison Green will have to step up and show intensity when their number is called. Others down the bench like Justine Pissott and Aga Makurat may also be asked to put in a few solid minutes and they, too, can’t miss a beat. Even if none of them are scoring, as long as they can get stops and play efficiently when multiple starters need a breather, Vanderbilt could stay in the game and compete.
Vanderbilt takes on LSU in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, on Monday, Jan. 13, at 6 p.m. CST.
