Vanderbilt Men’s Basketball was announced as a 10 seed in the East Region of the NCAA Tournament on March 16. This marked the first time since the 2016-17 season that the Commodores were included in the field of 68.
Vanderbilt boasts a strong resume on the season, highlighted by five ranked, Quad 1A wins. However, a skid to end the season left many fans pondering the same question heading into March Madness: What Vanderbilt will we get? The answer remains to be seen, but making the tournament for the first time in nine seasons is an accomplishment nonetheless. Head coach Mark Byington brought together a ragtag band of transfers in his first season and led them to a 20-12 overall record (8-10 in the SEC).
The Commodores now face their toughest challenge of the season: the No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s. The Gaels finished the season with a 28-5 record and just one loss in West Coast Conference play. That earned them the regular season WCC title, but they were defeated by Gonzaga in the WCC championship game. The Gaels are led by a strong duo of senior guard Augustas Marciulionis, who averages 14.3 points and 6.1 assists per game, and sophomore forward Paulius Murauskas, who contributes 12.5 points and 8.0 rebounds each contest.
On the other side of the court, Vanderbilt is led by All-SEC Third Team member Jason Edwards and NCAA Tournament veteran AJ Hoggard. This first-round matchup will not be defined by a singular performance, though. It is, instead, a battle between two teams that yield dramatically different statistics across the board.
Pump the brakes
The first discrepancy between these two teams comes from their pace of play. Saint Mary’s and Vanderbilt exist on nearly opposite sides of the spectrum here, as the Gaels rank 358th out of 364 teams in Division I Men’s Basketball in true tempo, per EvanMiya. Saint Mary’s pace (or lack thereof) is backed up further by its adjusted tempo, which ranks 359th out of 364 at 61.7 possessions per 40 minutes. This statistic is adjusted to account for opponent pace, showing that the Gaels’ playstyle is unrelated to the competition they face. Their average possession length also ranks fifth-to-last in all of Division I at 20.2 seconds per possession. The Gaels do not profit from the fast break as much as other teams, scoring only 6.45 points per competition on these types of plays, which comes in at 327th in the nation, per the NCAA. The stats don’t lie: Saint Mary’s will happily play at its own pace, regardless of who it is facing.
Vanderbilt, on the other hand, plays at a much faster pace. Its true tempo comes in at 70.9, placing it at 55th nationally, compared to Saint Mary’s value of 63.7. In regard to its adjusted tempo, it plays an average of 69.4 possessions per 40 minutes, which ranks 64th out of the 364 teams in Division I. The Commodores’ average possession length (16.5 seconds) is nearly 4 seconds shorter than that of Saint Mary’s, coming in at 58th in the country. Lastly, but perhaps most significantly, the Black and Gold pick up 11.59 points per game on fast-break opportunities (84th/364), which is over 5 points more than the Gaels.
The stats tell a clear story here of very different speeds for Vanderbilt and Saint Mary’s. Which team’s playstyle will prevail in their first-round clash?
No easy buckets
The next set of statistics to focus on comes on the defensive side of the ball. While Saint Mary’s boasts a relatively productive offense — coming in at 56th in adjusted offensive efficiency — its true strength lies in its ability to smother opponents. The Gaels rank eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, giving up an average of 92.2 points per 100 possessions to their competitors. Much of this effectiveness comes from their ability to contest opposing shots, allowing an effective field goal percentage of just 46.2%, placing them at 14th nationally. (eFG% is a statistic that adjusts field goal percentage to account for 3-point field goals being worth more than two-point field goals.)
However, Saint Mary’s is still elite at stopping both 3-pointers and 2-pointers, allowing the teams it faces to shoot just 31.2% (44th out of 364 Division I teams) and 45.8% (12th/364) from those ranges, respectively. Head coach Randy Bennett has instilled a defensive mindset in his 24-year tenure at Saint Mary’s, and that extends to this year’s team.
The Gaels’ dedication to defensive prowess might not be an issue if Vanderbilt can step up on defense. However, Saint Mary’s is also incredibly smart with the basketball on offense. This season, Vanderbilt has a turnover margin ratio of 3.7, per the NCAA; this is good enough for 18th in the nation. Saint Mary’s is incredibly reluctant to turn the ball over, though, giving it up just 15.1% of the time (compared to Vanderbilt’s usual forced turnover tally of 20.0%).
The Gaels also don’t have many shots blocked or stolen, represented by their offensive Block% and Steal% on KenPom: 7.2% and 8.1%, which rank 21st and 22nd nationally. Vanderbilt usually prospers from its ability to force turnovers in games, but that may come as a challenge against Saint Mary’s. Bennett has instilled a culture of responsibility with the basketball, and the Gaels have the stats to support that.
Battling beneath the basket
Rebounding has been a significant challenge for Vanderbilt this season, and that challenge will not go away as it heads onto college basketball’s biggest stage. Vanderbilt picks up just 34.9 rebounds per game, which is around the league average (198th/364), according to ESPN. The Commodores’ rebounding differential is no better, coming in at a slight positive value of plus-0.4. This is an area of concern for the Commodores, who are facing one of the strongest rebounding teams in the nation in the first round. Saint Mary’s grabs 39.8 boards per contest, 15th in Division I, and they have the best differential in the country at plus-10.6. The stats continue to tell a familiar story: The Commodores lack the size to compete with the best of the best.
Let’s go even further into the rebounding discrepancy between these two teams by taking a look at offensive boards. Despite its lack of height, Vanderbilt is an above-average team on the offensive glass. This success can be attributed in large part to Devin McGlockton, who ranks 42nd nationally with an offensive rebound percentage of 14.0% according to KenPom. Because of him, Vanderbilt brings down 11.7 offensive rebounds per game (90th/364), with a differential of plus-1.8 (69th/364).
But even where it seems like the Black and Gold might have an advantage on the glass, Saint Mary’s shows its dominance. Mitchell Saxen rivals McGlockton with an offensive rebound percentage of 16.2%, contributing to an overall team offensive rebound percentage of 40.5%; this ranks second in college basketball. The Gaels reel in 14.1 offensive boards on a nightly basis (ninth in the country) and have a differential of plus-5.6, placing them fourth nationally. Their superiority on the glass cannot be understated ahead of this matchup with an, at best, average rebounding team in Vanderbilt.
This matchup won’t be easy for either side, but there are some serious statistical advantages for Saint Mary’s. The pace battle between a team as slow as Saint Mary’s and a much quicker team like Vanderbilt will be interesting to look out for ahead of the game. Can Byington’s squad overcome the Gaels’ defensive prowess and pull off a first-round upset? Or will Saint Mary’s ride slowly into the second round on the back of its rebounding supremacy? These questions, along with others, remain unanswered, but the stats provide an idea of what the outcome could look like.
The Commodores will take on the Gaels in their first NCAA Tournament game since 2017 on March 21 at 2:15 p.m. CDT at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio.
