Vanderbilt Men’s Basketball is coming off back-to-back losses to No. 1 Auburn and No. 5 Tennessee. Ultimately, on the record sheet, a win is a win, and a loss is a loss. While moral victories aren’t wins in and of themselves, keeping it close with two of the nation’s best teams is something to be proud of. Still, these back-to-back losses put Vanderbilt in a tough spot for its NCAA Tournament hopes, especially considering its upcoming schedule.
Vanderbilt faces another ranked challenger in its mid-week matchup against No. 17 Kentucky, marking the second of two meetings between these schools in 2025. Will the Commodores repeat the outcome of their upset earlier this season, or will the Wildcats find the vengeance they seek back on their home court?
Guard up
The story of the season for Vanderbilt has been its lack of size. With that lack of big-man presence comes a reliance on guard play and smaller lineups. That said, Vanderbilt’s most used lineup this season — and its predicted starting lineup for this matchup — features three guards Jason Edwards, AJ Hoggard, and Chris Mañon. Even its reserves are highlighted by guard depth with players like Tyler Tanner, Grant Huffman, and MJ Collins Jr.
The opposing Kentucky Wildcats use a similar lineup quite regularly. While their most used starting five of the season will not be healthy enough to play together, they’ll likely run out three guards in Otega Oweh, Koby Brea and either Travis Perry or Lamont Butler (depending on injury status). Guards lead both of these teams, so it’s only fair to assume that they will decide whether or not their team is victorious.
Oweh, a 6’4” junior averaging 16.0 points and 4.6 rebounds per contest, absolutely dominated Vanderbilt last time around. The Newark native went for 21 points and 12 rebounds on 8-of-14 shooting from the field. Still, the Commodores tamed the Wildcats and came away with a signature win at Memorial Gymnasium. This game will be different, as the Black and Gold will be hitting the road to visit Rupp Arena. Edwards and the rest of Vanderbilt’s guards will have to outplay Oweh and Kentucky’s crew to ensure another underdog victory.
Making them pay
A standout difference between these two teams is the amount of turnovers they force opponents to give up. Vanderbilt forces the second most turnovers in the SEC at 14.6 per game, including 9.2 steals, which ranks third in the conference. The Commodores boast an impressive minus-4.6 turnover differential (the lower the value, the better), also placing them in second place in the conference behind only Ole Miss.
Kentucky, on the complete opposite side of the spectrum, forces the least turnovers in the conference with only 9.8 per game. The Wildcats average a full three steals less than Vanderbilt; however, they block more shots on a game-by-game basis, which could be something to keep an eye on. Kentucky has a positive turnover differential, meaning it gives the ball up more than it takes it away. If head coach Mark Pope wants to get revenge for the afternoon of Jan. 25, his team will need to compensate for that.
Closing time
Vanderbilt’s struggles in the second half of games have become abundantly clear as of late. Facing off against Auburn — the No. 1 team in the country — at home was never thought to be an easy game, but after taking a lead early in the second half, there was a glimmer of hope for Vanderbilt. That hope quickly disappeared after the Commodores’ lead was washed away by a 15-4 Auburn run led by 12 points from Chaney Johnson.
The next game followed a similar script: Vanderbilt took a 13-point lead heading into halftime against its rival Tennessee, but the Volunteers turned that lead into a tied game about 10 minutes into the second half. Soon that tie became a lead for Tennessee, and it ultimately outscored Vanderbilt by an insurmountable 18 points in the second half.
The Commodores can not let this happen again in Lexington. Opponents aside, Vanderbilt is establishing a reputation for itself as a team that collapses at the first sign of adversity after it builds a lead. Head coach Mark Byington’s squad must find a way to recover when the other team gains momentum.
Winning the battle of the backcourts will be crucial for Vanderbilt’s success in this game, as will having a negative turnover margin. However, its ability to close out this game will be the biggest test it has faced yet and a true testament to how far Vanderbilt can go this season.
Vanderbilt will take its talents to Lexington as they face off against No. 17 Kentucky at Rupp Arena on Wednesday, Feb. 19 at 6 p.m. CST.
