The Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions’ Spring 2026 Vanderbilt Poll surveyed 1,048 registered Tennessee voters from Feb. 20 to March 14. The public opinion survey had a 4.05% margin of error, and the results reflected declines in city leadership approval across all party lines following Winter Storm Fern’s aftermath in late January. Respondents shared mixed feelings regarding their opinions on city services, though there was a consistent sense of concern for the effects of population growth on housing costs and quality of life.
CSDI, alongside co-directors and political science professors Joshua Clinton and John Geer — who is also one of Chancellor Daniel Diermeier’s senior advisers — has conducted the poll twice a year since 2011 by canvassing registered voters in Tennessee over the phone and online
Ice storm
Regarding Winter Storm Fern, which hit the city one month before the survey began collecting responses, 76% of respondents stated they were affected, with 66% sharing they lost power. In total, 230,000 homes were affected across Davidson County.
While the poll reported that 42% of Nashvillians believed the city was on the wrong track last year, results showed that the number has climbed to 56% for 2026. Additionally, Mayor Freddie O’Connell’s overall approval ratings decreased, with only 35% of survey respondents approving of how he handled storm recovery efforts.
In an interview with The Hustler, Geer said he largely attributes the results of the survey to the recency of the ice storm at the time the survey began collecting responses.
“Both the city council and the mayor saw a drop in their approval. Other city leaders, such as the head of the school board, the head of the metro schools, police and fire, they were very much the same. So, this was not across the board, but more explicitly aimed at the political positions, which I think reflects, to some degree, the ice storm and its aftermath,” Geer said. “I think [O’Connell] was inevitably going to drop some points, just because when you govern, you make choices, and people get frustrated by it. But I think the ice storm certainly caused some problems.”
For the first time ever, the Vanderbilt Poll asked respondents about their opinions on the Nashville Electric Service, with the intent to gauge where approval stood after much of the city was left without power from Winter Storm Fern. Sixty-one percent reported largely disapproving of NES.
Alongside the 39% approval rating for the company’s handling of post-storm recovery, 37% of respondents blamed NES for being most responsible for the problems that followed Winter Storm Fern. Nine percent blamed O’Connell’s office, and the remaining 44% put the greatest amount of blame on Mother Nature.
Geer said he predicts the numbers for NES will likely not become a pattern once the city fully recovers from the storm.
“Their 61% disapproval rate is pretty high, but we don’t have a baseline. I would expect that number to get better for NES, but NES will probably need some time to recover from all of this,” Geer said.
Approval of Mayor O’Connell
Alongside public approval for Metro Council, O’Connell’s overall approval rating decreased, dropping from 67% in 2025 to 54% in 2026. While approval ratings for the school board, police and fire departments remained relatively stable, O’Connell’s decline marked an additional 13-point loss atop the 4 points he already lost from his 71% approval rating in 2024.
O’Connell’s approval ratings revealed a sharp divide between the views of Democrats and Republicans. While Republicans reported 25% approval in 2026, a 31-point drop from 2024, Democrats reported 71% approval, a 12-point drop from 2025. Additionally, independents reported 54% approval of O’Connell, a 9-point drop from 2025.
In an interview with The Hustler, Clinton shared his thoughts on respondents’ declining approval of city leadership as well as the consistent polarization reflected in the results.
“For the first time since we’ve been doing this, we saw a decrease in approval, and more people think the city is on the wrong track than the right track. The support for the mayor is down from where it was, but it is still above 50% at 54%,” Clinton said. “We are also seeing a big partisan split between Democrats and Republicans, and that’s a noticeable departure. Mayors these days have to balance these national issues, like immigration, that pull them in different directions as their Democratic base and their Republican base want very different things to happen.”
Ignoring party lines, the survey found a 9-point drop in respondents’ beliefs that O’Connell best represents their views, sitting at 35% for 2026. However, approval for O’Connell outpaces other government segments, with 25% stating the Metro Council properly represented their views, 24% for Governor Bill Lee and 15% for the General Assembly.
Of the priorities respondents reported being most concerned about, 78% marked that they want O’Connell to address public education. Consecutively, 73% expressed a need for more affordable housing, a 12-point increase from last year, with 71% sharing that they do not think the city is prioritizing local neighborhoods. At 63%, the spot for the third most prioritized issue resulted in a tie between reducing crime, reducing traffic and ensuring long-term financial health for the city.
Survey respondents expressed high approval for Metro Water Services, which received 60% approval, and Metro Trash and Recycling, which received 57%. However, increasing the reliability of these kinds of city services has also become a top priority for 49% of Nashvillians, a number that increased by 11 points from 2025.
Housing and cost of living
Population growth and the rising cost to live in Nashville were common concerns among survey respondents, with 79% believing that the city’s population is growing too fast. Eighty-two percent shared that they currently are unable to afford to purchase a house in Davidson County, and only 36% expressed plans to buy a house in the county.
Other economic concerns arose from the survey, with only 8% of Nashvillians rating the city’s economy as “very good” in 2026, a number that has dropped from 12% in 2025. 43% stated that “bringing new good jobs to the city” was a top priority for rectifying these economic strains, which has more than doubled from the 18% who said this in 2025.
73% of respondents also identified housing affordability as one of their top priorities, though support for building more multifamily housing, such as apartments or duplexes, in Nashville neighborhoods saw a decrease from 2025. This year, 53% of respondents reported believing that multifamily housing should only be allowed in dense areas to preserve the “character” of less-populated areas. 47% expressed their support for allowing construction of multifamily homes citywide to promote local economies.
Geer expressed his thoughts on how he thinks the city will go about addressing community concerns for population growth and housing affordability, explaining that changes will likely be long-term.
“I think that there’s been a longstanding concern that Nashville’s growing too quickly, and I think that’s true, and people don’t like some aspects of the growth. There’s probably not a lot that can be done about that on the housing front,” Geer said. “There’s going to be an effort, and there has been an effort by the mayor and by the city council to build more affordable housing. That’s going to continue to be a priority, but it’s not an easy fix or a quick fix, and it will certainly be something they’re going to continue to pay attention to.”
While 24% of Nashvillians said recent changes have improved their day-to-day lives, 48% said they have made them worse. In particular, 32% said “heavy traffic to and from downtown” has emerged as the top reason for why residents are avoiding Nashville’s city center.
Local improvements
The survey data revealed many respondents’ desire for the city to prioritize projects that improve life in Nashville’s neighborhoods, rather than on large-scale projects. Specifically, 71% of residents that responded stated that the government does not spend enough time addressing the problems that affect local neighborhoods.
When asked their thoughts about several specific city proposals, 51% opposed the construction of Elon Musk’s tunnel project, a number that rose from 35% when his name was explicitly referenced in the question. The tunnel construction will be toward building the Music City Loop, an underground tunnel transit center that will span 13 miles and connect varying parts of Nashville to one another. With regards to support for bringing NASCAR to the Nashville Speedway racetrack, 26% supported the move, while 36% called to have the racetrack eliminated.
The Nashville bike lanes the O’Connell administration has prioritized building also received mixed responses. While 45% supported the addition to the city’s roads, where it is easy to do so, 28% reported not wanting any more bike lanes in the city.
When asked how he believes the city will respond to the results revealing dissatisfaction with population growth and some city services, Clinton emphasized ongoing efforts to rectify community concerns and the need to have realistic aspirations for O’Connell’s position.
“Well, the mayor, to his credit, is trying; they’re not unaware of this. And so, they’re trying to push affordable housing programs. They’re trying to deal with the transportation issues,” Clinton said. “Everyone wants it cheaper, right? Everyone wants flying unicorns, pots of gold and rainbows, but it’s really hard for politicians to deliver on that. I think it’s just an internal struggle in terms of managing expectations about what you can actually do in power and what people are expecting.”
