They say the SEC is having a down year. They say it pales in comparison to the other Power Four conferences.
But how can they even say that when KenPom, arguably the most prevalent analytics platform for college basketball, still has it as the highest-rated conference? How can they argue that point if EvanMiya ranks the SEC as the top conference in average strength (i.e., the strength of every team in the conference and a good measure of how hard it is to win conference games)?
Case in point: don’t listen to “them.” When it comes to winning games in the SEC, hard is an understatement.
Despite a three-game skid a few weeks ago, Vanderbilt has overcome challenges and found a way to win its games — for the most part.
While Kentucky, Ole Miss and Auburn aren’t necessarily the best teams in the conference, any SEC win is a good one. The Commodores obliterated Kentucky, which was coming off a five-game win streak, at home before following it up with another victory over Ole Miss — albeit a less convincing one.
Their three-game win streak was abruptly snapped with a home loss to Oklahoma, the conference’s lowest-ranked team at the time. Fortunately for the Black and Gold faithful, Byington’s squad got back on track with a big road win over Auburn — a game in which it was an underdog.
This team may not be the undefeated wagon it appeared to be at the start of the season, but it is certainly still one of the SEC’s most formidable units. The next month of games will be crucial in determining just how far this team can go in March. For now, though, let’s stay present and take a look at Vanderbilt’s identity as of late.
A star is born
If you look up how a star is formed on Google, you’ll get an answer similar to the one below.
“Gravity triggers a collapse in dense regions of interstellar clouds, causing the material to contract and spin, forming a hot, dense protostar that eventually ignites nuclear fusion.”
Injuries to Duke Miles and Frankie Collins have placed an immense amount of gravity on Tyler Tanner. Still, the sophomore guard has been able to escape on-ball pressure, collapse the defense and combine elite ball-handling with spin moves to make his way to the rim. And every time he drives to the hoop, it looks like he’s on fire — not dissimilar from the ignition of a star.
The Brentwood, Tennessee, native has been nothing short of electrifying this season, putting together season averages of 18.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 2.5 steals per game. Not only did he take massive jumps in these categories compared to last season, but his efficiency on all three levels has taken a significant leap as well. Tanner is shooting 48.1% from the field, 38.2% from deep and 85.6% from the charity stripe.
Taking a deeper look into advanced analytics — particularly all-in-one metrics — gives further insight into the magnitude of Tanner’s contributions. He sits in the 99th percentile for each of the following stats, according to CBB Analytics: regularized adjusted plus/minus (RAPM), win shares generated per 40 minutes (WS/40), player efficiency rating (PER) and wins above replacement player per 40 minutes (WARP/40).
If that isn’t enough, Tanner is KenPom’s most impactful SEC player, the second most valuable player in the conference (and 14th most valuable in the nation) by EvanMiya’s standards and fourth in the SEC according to Torvik’s points over replacement per adjusted game (PRPG!).
While the statistics have been unfathomably impressive, they don’t illustrate Tanner’s full impact. In the games played without Miles and Collins, Tanner has taken over the sole playmaking and facilitating responsibilities. Even with opposing defenses game planning against him, he has excelled. Just look at his stats from the past four games.
Tanner hasn’t just been a star as of late — he’s been a superstar. His incredible performances have earned him loads of national attention and recognition. Just a few days ago, Tanner was named to the Wooden Award Top 20 Watchlist, solidifying him as one of the sport’s best players.
It remains to be seen whether or not he’ll declare for the NBA draft at the end of the season, but one thing’s for sure: Vanderbilt will go as far as he takes it.
“He has my utmost trust. I feel comfortable, and our team feels comfortable, with him making a play,” Byington said about Tanner after Vanderbilt’s win over Auburn. “For him to be able to play the minutes that he does, under the pressure that he faces, we don’t really have another option right now. He knows a lot is on his shoulders, and he’s delivering.”
Byington is exactly right. Tanner has been delivering. But the truth remains that this team needs its other playmakers back if it hopes to reach the goals that it has set for itself.
Stuck in neutral
The absence of Miles and Collins has left the Commodores’ offensive engine sputtering and running on empty. Even with the emergence of Tanner, the team has a clear hole in terms of guard depth.
Collins has been out since Dec. 17 after tearing his meniscus, and Miles hasn’t played since Vanderbilt’s Jan. 24 win over Mississippi State due to lingering knee issues. Miles recently had a minor procedure done to clean things up in his knee, and Collins’ recovery has been going smoothly, as he was medically cleared to return to action last week.
Without Miles or Collins to handle some of the playmaking duties alongside Tanner, the onus has been placed on the shoulders of Chandler Bing and Mike James. Bing has blossomed into a solid role player for the ’Dores, averaging 25.5 minutes per game while the other guards have been injured. James has stepped into the spotlight, too, breaking out as a fan favorite who can knock down some clutch shots.
Still, each of them has their flaws. Bing struggles as a ball-handler at times, and his shot can be inconsistent. James has a bit of a fouling issue, to say the least, as he’s accumulated 10 fouls across 25 minutes in Vanderbilt’s last two games.
Miles, prior to his injury, was averaging 16.6 points and 4.3 assists per game. Collins isn’t as much of a scorer (7.8 points per game), but his playmaking chops are apparent in his 4.7 assists per game. Together, the two were combining for nearly 25 points and 9 assists on a nightly basis — and the ’Dores haven’t quite found a solution to fill this void.
In addition to offensive obstacles, Miles and Collins are both elite perimeter defenders, averaging 2.8 and 2.4 steals per game, respectively. Without the ability to pressure opposing ball-handlers and outside scorers, Vanderbilt has been forced to turn away from its usual token-pressure defensive schemes. As a result, opponents have gotten the ball up the court with ease and have shown no difficulty scoring. Pick-and-roll defense has been another area of concern, as opposing guards have had a much easier time getting to the rim due to poor rotations from Byington’s squad.
Bing is a solid on-ball defender and boasts a much larger frame than either Miles or Collins — standing at 6’5, while the other two are 6’2 and 6’1, respectively. Even with this added height and physicality, though, the Black and Gold are missing the fast hands and lateral quickness of their two veteran guards.
Needless to say, the Commodores’ offense and defense have struggled without the help of Miles and Collins. It remains to be seen when the veteran duo will return to game action, but once they do, Byington’s squad should be back to its consistent, winning ways.
Progress, not panic
Yet with all these injuries and obstacles, it’s important to put the season into perspective.
Before the season started, Vanderbilt wasn’t considered to be anywhere near the best teams in the country. It has now been included in the AP Top 25 for 11 straight weeks, peaking at No. 10.
Analytics have always loved the ’Dores, though, as sites like KenPom and EvanMiya both included Vanderbilt in their top 25 teams in Division I — at No. 19 and No. 24, respectively. Even with the high bar set by these advanced analytical sources, Byington’s squad has exceeded expectations. The Commodores now sit at No. 13 on both previously mentioned sites and are up to No. 11 on Torvik. Not too shabby, huh?
Vanderbilt started the season with 16 consecutive wins, and its fans were ecstatic. It felt like the team would never lose again. Unfortunately, reality struck for players, coaches and fans alike, and the ’Dores would go on to lose three straight games after their perfect start.
Based on reactions from the fanbase, you would think the world was ending. Perfection is a near impossibility in college basketball, so the win streak was bound to come to an end at some point. Still, this bumpy road left the Black and Gold faithful questioning if the early-season success was legitimate or not.
Since then, the team has rebounded, going 4-1 in its last five games on its way to a 20-4 record. That’s right, the Commodores have already matched their win total from last season, and they still have seven regular-season games left to play. The team’s dynamics have changed throughout the season, but it continues to look like one of the top teams in the SEC.
“We looked a certain way in December. We looked a certain way in the first couple weeks of January, and, right now, we’re still fighting,” Byington said after Vanderbilt’s victory over Auburn. “I saw a funny stat that showed we’re 3-4 in our last seven games, and maybe now they’ll say that we’ve won four of our last five. I’m more of an optimistic person, so maybe that’ll be the line.”
Panic is an impulsive emotion, and it can take over even the most rational people. But when you start to panic, it’s important to take a step back and consider the situation in context. The Vanderbilt Commodores are an NCAA tournament lock and are currently projected as a top-five seed in March Madness.
Perhaps every member of Commodore Nation should take a page out of Byington’s book and appreciate this season’s success story. For now, though, Vanderbilt will have to stay motivated in the face of controversy and criticism.
The ’Dores look to extend their winning streak to two, as they prepare to host Texas A&M in Memorial Gymnasium on Saturday, Feb. 14, for some Valentine’s Day hoops.
