In another disheartening finish, Vanderbilt was dominated at home by No. 13 Auburn, 80-65. The loss dropped Vanderbilt to 5-12 on the season and 0-4 in conference play, a brutal start for a schedule that won’t get any easier going forward. Sitting at No. 244 in the NET rankings, Vanderbilt is the second lowest rated “Power Six” Division 1 team, only ahead of Big East member DePaul, who stands at No. 311. 

Although Vanderbilt had some spirited second-half efforts from players like Jason Rivera-Torres and Malik Presley, it wasn’t enough to come within striking distance of Auburn. Vanderbilt’s next opponent — Mississippi State — has also struggled in its recent conference matchups.

The Bulldogs, outside of a major upset of No. 6 Tennessee, have suffered losses to South Carolina, Alabama and No. 8 Kentucky. Despite being 1-3 in SEC play, Mississippi State is a stout team that is benefiting from the return of star forward Tolu Smith.

Smith has played in the Bulldogs’ last five games after being sidelined for a foot injury in October. Most recently against Kentucky, the 6’11” forward posted a stat line of 26 points and 8 rebounds on 11-15 shooting in only 27 minutes. Especially against an undersized Vanderbilt team, whose tallest player currently is 6’9” Carter Lang, Smith could dominate. For example, against Auburn, Vanderbilt gave up a combined 36 points and 20 rebounds to forwards Jaylin Williams and Johni Broome that stand at 6’8” and 6’10” respectively. Off the bench, center Dylan Cardwell added in 12 points and 6 rebounds in 15 minutes as well.

If Vanderbilt wants to stand any chance, somebody has to be able to slow down Smith in the paint while still stifling crafty guards like Josh Hubbard, a freshman that hung 25 points on 53.3% shooting in Mississippi State’s routing of Tennessee. While the Commodores may not be able to match the size of the Bulldogs like Kentucky was able to, Vanderbilt’s knack of living and dying by the 3-pointer could prove to be its best opportunity to win. The only problem with that is Mississippi State is one of the elite defenses in the nation from beyond the arc, holding its opposition to an overall 3-point percentage of 27.9, which is the 12th best in the nation.

Overall, this is a matchup nightmare for the Commodores. The lack of size blended in with perennial struggles from behind the arc can prove to be massive holes that the Bulldogs won’t fail to take advantage of. However, that isn’t to say that Vanderbilt won’t have a chance. Mississippi State has been subject to giving up great performances from standout guards like Kentucky’s Antonio Reeves, Alabama’s Mark Sears and South Carolina’s Meechie Johnson. 

It’s undeniable that the core of Vanderbilt’s scoring prowess and playmaking talent lies on the shoulders of backcourt duo Ezra Manjon and Tyrin Lawrence. Alongside the spark plug off the bench that is Rivera-Torres, the Commodores’ fate rests upon the ability of these guards to play efficiently and effectively. All it takes is one hot night from Manjon or Lawrence to potentially will Vanderbilt into a close game. 

In Vanderbilt and Mississippi State’s last meeting a season ago, the Bulldogs’ Smith dominated with 27 points. But, it was exceptional guard play from Manjon, Lawrence and Jordan Wright that delivered Vanderbilt a five point win. The trio had scored a combined 50 of Vanderbilt’s 77 and a similar performance from Manjon and Lawrence this year will be necessary.

This year will be different as Vanderbilt enters this matchup as major underdogs, with ESPN giving the Commodores a 5.9% chance of victory. Regardless, Vanderbilt needs to fight hard to give itself a chance of knocking off Mississippi State. 

The Commodores will kick off their game against the Bulldogs Saturday, Jan. 20 in Starkville, Miss. at 2:30 p.m. CST.