March is finally upon us, and Vanderbilt Men’s Basketball is dancing for the first time in eight years. Head coach Mark Byington has orchestrated a masterful turnaround in his first year at the helm of Vanderbilt’s basketball program, going 20-12 (8-10 SEC). Few people saw Byington’s success coming, and the Commodores were even picked to finish last in the SEC after a 9-23 (4-14) 2023-24 season.
All that has changed now, and No. 10 Vanderbilt will square off with No. 7 Saint Mary’s at 2:15 p.m. CDT on March 21 in Cleveland, Ohio, for a spot in the Round of 32. The Hustler’s staff took a look at the key matchups and storylines that will define this opening-round clash.
Who is Vanderbilt’s biggest X-factor going into the postseason?
Tristan Rutman, Senior Staffer: Jaylen Carey. The sophomore forward has had an up-and-down season through the first year of his Vanderbilt tenure. In a five-game stretch from Feb. 4-19, Carey averaged 14.2 points and 7.8 rebounds. More recently, he had a six-game stint where he reached double digits in the points column just once, including a goose egg in the Commodores’ first-round matchup against Texas in the SEC Tournament. If Vanderbilt wants to make a run this March, Carey will need to step up and give consistently productive minutes, which can only be done if he stays out of foul trouble.
Vincent Xu, Deputy Sports Editor: Chris Manon. Manon was the difference maker in two of Vanderbilt’s biggest wins this season, posting 16 points in the 77-72 win over then-No. 24 Ole Miss and 23 in the 97-93 upset over then-No. 14 Missouri. The New Jersey native is a prototypical slasher who can take control of the game when he’s on a tear. His athleticism sets him apart from other players on the court but also compensates for his recklessness and low awareness on defense. If his teammates create driving lanes for him when he has the ball — and if he can stay disciplined on defense — Manon will push Vanderbilt over the top.
How critical will AJ Hoggard’s tournament experience be to the Commodores to make a run?
Dylan Tovitz, Senior Staffer: The Commodores will go as far as AJ Hoggard takes them in March. While his play has certainly been underwhelming this season, he is Byington’s only rotation player besides Carey with significant tournament experience. (He has a lot of it including a Sweet 16 appearance with Michigan State in 2022.) March basketball carries a unique intensity that surpasses even SEC play, and Hoggard will need to be the steadying presence that keeps his team composed, particularly after their recent losing skid. Vanderbilt’s tournament outlook hinges entirely on the type of Hoggard we get on and off the court.
Ashleigh Provoost, Sports Copy Editor: If Vanderbilt wants to go far in the postseason, it has to lean on every resource it has. Hoggard is a perfect resource for mentorship. Despite not being consistent — of his last six regular season games, Hoggard had two double-digit games (14 and 21 points) but otherwise did not score more than 5 — he is the team’s only true NCAA Tournament veteran. Even though I don’t expect the tournament to expose some new, untapped Hoggard potential, I do expect the Commodores to lean on Hoggard’s experience to help them through a tough first-round matchup with the Gaels.
What’s one stat to know going into the Round of 64?
Aiden Rutman, Sports Editor: I’m immediately drawn to the difference between Vanderbilt and Saint Mary’s average possession lengths. This game will be won by the team that controls the pace of play: Vanderbilt has an average possession length of 16.5 seconds, which ranks 58th in the country. On the other end of the spectrum are the Gaels, who take an average of 20.2 seconds per possession, which ranks 359th in the country (out of 366). These teams are similar in a lot of ways, but they operate at very different speeds.
Adam Burns, Lead Sports Analyst: Vanderbilt was 13-2 this season (7-2 in SEC play) when Tyler Nickel made three or more 3-pointers. The Commodores need to get the sharpshooter involved early and often.
Who on Saint Mary’s does Vanderbilt need to look out for?
Tristan Rutman: Paulius Murauskas will pose the most problems for Vanderbilt. The sophomore from Lithuania is 6’8 and 235 pounds, boasting a tall yet athletic build — the type that the Commodores have struggled against all season. Murauskas averages 12.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per contest and has also shown an ability to stretch the floor in select games throughout Saint Mary’s 2025 campaign. The forward has had some variation in his minutes, particularly during conference games in the WCC, but he’ll be expected to play big minutes in the Gaels’ first-round matchup against the Black and Gold.
Grace Hall, Deputy Sports Editor: I’m going to pair Tristan’s answer with another tall, lengthy Lithuanian — Augustas Marciulionis. The senior is slightly smaller than Murauskas — standing at 6’4 — however, he leads his team in points (14.3) and assists (6.1) per game and has the highest 3-point percentage (38.8) as well. This Lithuanian duo will undoubtedly be at the top of the Commodores’ scouting report. If Vanderbilt can somewhat contain both of them — or even one of them well — I don’t see the rest of this Saint Mary’s team as a particularly big threat for Vanderbilt.
What’s Vanderbilt’s ceiling in this postseason?
Burns: Sweet 16. You might call me crazy given that Vanderbilt is ice-cold right now, but hear me out. Saint Mary’s is not built to go on extended scoring runs, which is the Commodores’ most crippling weakness. Then, a potential matchup with No. 2 Alabama awaits. The Crimson Tide would be heavily favored but an injury to star big man Grant Nelson opens the door for a potential upset. Without Nelson, Alabama’s defensive woes will be exasperated, and Vanderbilt will be able to score with more ease. If Mark Sears and Co. have even an average 3-point shooting night, the Commodores would be able to hang around and even pull off an upset.
Tovitz: Round of 32. I’m cautiously optimistic in hoping the Commodores surprise me with a run, but I just can’t see a realistic scenario where they beat Alabama in the Round of 32. Vanderbilt has dropped three straight winnable games, and with no momentum going in, asking it to beat a Crimson Tide team it lost to by 16 points earlier in the season seems like a tall task. However, this team has surprised us all season, and in my mind, I won’t completely rule out the possibility of Edwards and Hoggard taking them on a run.
What is your score prediction for the Round of 64?
Fin Sparby, Staff Writer: 75-71, Vanderbilt wins. The first half will likely be close and Vanderbilt might be stagnant on offense as it struggles to find its footing. However, the Commodores possess a more potent offense and faster tempo than the Gaels, and I predict they’ll jump ahead in the second half after getting some good looks from downtown. Saint Mary’s will make it interesting at the end of the game and put some pressure on the ‘Dores (who give up scoring runs frequently), but good free-throw shooting and experience in close games will keep Vanderbilt dancing.
Aiden Rutman: Like I said earlier, this one is going to depend on which team controls the game’s tempo. If Vanderbilt can get out fast and utilize the fast break, I see the ‘Dores cruising to victory in high-scoring fashion. If the Gaels manage to slow Edwards and Byington’s offense down with their methodical play, the Black and Gold might struggle to eclipse 77 points for the fourth consecutive game. In the end, I expect Saint Mary’s experience to win out. Give me the Gaels, 71-66.
