Just 11 days ago, on March 1, Vanderbilt Men’s Basketball was on top of the world after its 87-84 win over then-No. 14 Missouri. The victory marked its third straight, all against top-25 opponents, and it felt like the ‘Dores were a certain lock for the NCAA Tournament. Since then? The Commodores have lost three games in a row — two by double digits — falling at home to Arkansas, on the road to Georgia and at a neutral site against Texas in the SEC Tournament.
The last loss stings the most — the Black and Gold shot 3-for-18 from 3-point range and a dismal 38.9% from the field in their 79-72 loss to Texas. Jason Edwards scored 20 points, and Devin McGlockton, Tyler Nickel and Chris Manon all scored in double figures for Vanderbilt.
A rough first half doomed the Commodores from the get-go, though, and they never really got it going, partially due to off-night’s from Jaylen Carey (0 points and 3 fouls) and AJ Hoggard (9 points on 4-of-11 shooting).
The team made a push in the final minutes of the game, even cutting Texas’s lead to single digits after spending more than half of the afternoon trailing by 10-plus, but it couldn’t do enough to close the gap as Tre Johnson and Tremon Mark combined for 38 points.
Vanderbilt will now have to wait until Selection Sunday on March 16 to learn its NCAA Tournament fate. While many experts have the Commodores squarely inside the Field of 68, the team’s seeding, location and status on the bubble are all much more in doubt after this losing streak.
What does this mean for Vanderbilt? Let’s talk about it.
Dayton dancing?
Vanderbilt is still essentially a lock to make the Big Dance — all 88 brackets and experts featured in the 2025 Bracket Matrix had the Commodores in the NCAA Tournament before its loss to Texas, so it’s safe to reason that most experts and outlets (if not all) will still have them there.
That 88 doesn’t mean the same thing that it meant after the Missouri win, though. Bid-stealers are always a concern: While Vanderbilt’s distance from the main part of the bubble offers some security from the inevitable Cinderella teams in conference tournaments, no one from Commodore Nation should feel good about this end to the season.
The most realistic outcome is that Vanderbilt receives a 10 or 11 seed in March Madness and avoids the First Four in Dayton, Ohio, from March 18-19, but with these last three losses, all to bubble teams, nothing is certain for the ‘Dores.
There’s a chance they get sent to Dayton as one of the “Last Four In” and don’t get a bye into the Round of 64. Relative to early-season expectations, a trip to the play-in wouldn’t be so bad. It’s still March Madness, after all. Relative to where the team was earlier this month, though? Dayton would be a serious disappointment.
Manon matters
Edwards might be the leading scorer, McGlockton might need to be the leading rebounder and Hoggard may be the vet, but it has become increasingly clear that Manon is the engine that makes Vanderbilt run.
He has grown more than anyone else on Vanderbilt’s roster as the season has worn on. He scored in double figures just twice before Feb. 22’s game against Ole Miss. Since then, though, he has scored double-digit points four times in six games.
More than that, though, he has learned how to play to his strengths. He uses his superior athleticism to get to the rim often and his strength to play through contact and draw fouls. When Vanderbilt couldn’t find anything offensively against Texas, Manon was everywhere. He got to the line seemingly at will, going 8-for-12 on free throws. He added 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal and 1 block and played his heart out defensively — as he has done all year.
He spent much of the game on Texas’s superstar guard Tre Johnson, and while the first-year (19 points) got his, it took him way more shots than normal to do so. Johnson shot just 6-of-19 from the field and 3-of-10 from downtown and turned the ball over twice. Manon took a couple of hard falls and was clearly hobbled in the second half, but he still gave his all on the court.
Vanderbilt was outmatched throughout the whole game. Manon’s tenacity was one of the only things that gave it a chance to come back.
Unsettling
There’s almost no chance the NCAA Selection Committee leaves Vanderbilt out of the field. Commodore Nation shouldn’t be too worried about that — instead, they should be worried about whether this team has the legs to do anything in the Big Dance.
These last three losses, all against fringe tournament teams that will either find themselves as 8, 9, 10 or 11 seeds or just miss out on the postseason, speak volumes about where Vanderbilt is right now. Vanderbilt won’t get an SEC foe in the Round of 64 (or the First Four, depending on how things play out), but it will get a team with extremely similar metrics.
Vanderbilt will get an Arkansas, Georgia or Texas-esque team in its first game of the postseason. The ‘Dores have proved that it can beat teams better than it (see Missouri, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Kentucky), but can it produce the complete, team-based performance needed to win next week? The jury’s still out.
Only time will tell what Vanderbilt’s NCAA Tournament fate will look like. Head coach Mark Byington and Co. will have to wait until 5 p.m. CDT on March 16 for Selection Sunday to hear.
