Vanderbilt Football’s 2024 regular season has been nothing short of exciting. From the Commodores’ tragic loss at the hands of Georgia State to their sensational upset of former No. 1 Alabama, there’s been action all year on West End. With that action comes the return of something that Commodore Nation hasn’t experienced since 2018 — postseason play.
Head coach Clark Lea and his team are going bowling, though the details — when, where and against who — of the game won’t be revealed until Dec. 8. The NCAA Transfer Portal will officially open 24 hours later on Dec. 9, ushering in a 20-day period of chaos across the country. Vanderbilt will be an active participant in the festivities as it prepares for a slew of players to age out, try their hands at the pros or enter the portal themselves.
Our staff dove into the madness to try and make sense of December football for the Commodores for the first time in six years.
What bowl do you expect Vanderbilt to end up in?
Henry Oelhafen, Deputy Sports Editor: It’s really a toss-up. There are 13 bowl-eligible SEC teams — four will likely make the new 12-team College Football Playoff — and nine SEC bowl tie-ins (outside of the CFP). This means the math could work perfectly and send every non-playoff SEC team to an SEC tie-in bowl. In my mind, there are three leading options for Vanderbilt: the Liberty Bowl, the Birmingham Bowl and the Gasparilla Bowl. The Liberty Bowl would match Vanderbilt up with a Big 12 opponent and take place in Memphis, Tennessee — an easy drive for Vanderbilt fans. The Gasparilla and Birmingham Bowls are a bit up in the air, as Vanderbilt could face a variety of opponents from the pool of other bowl-eligible teams from conferences like the AAC, ACC or Big 12. At this point, Vanderbilt could go to any of the three.
David Hernandez, Lead Sports Analyst: Almost a week ago, my initial projections were for Vanderbilt to be in the Birmingham Bowl, which at this point is still possible. Although the Liberty Bowl seems the most likely due to proximity, I’d expect Vanderbilt to end up in Tampa, Florida, for the Gasparilla Bowl. This bowl would be a fun trip for the Commodores, and they’d have a wide variety of possible opponents from the ACC and AAC. Vanderbilt would likely play an ACC opponent like NC State, Pittsburgh or Boston College, but an AAC opponent like South Florida would also be on the table. Whichever bowl Vanderbilt ultimately ends up in is a roll of the dice.
Who is Vanderbilt’s biggest X-factor heading into the postseason?
Grace Hall, Deputy Sports Editor: Vanderbilt’s biggest X-factor going into the postseason is less so a specific player and more so a position group: special teams, which was the best in the nation according to ESPN. Jeff Lepak has done a phenomenal job this season with the special teams room; it was perhaps the most reliable group on Vanderbilt’s team. This unit proved they could develop players and effectively recruit from the portal to fill missing gaps, as evidenced by Brock Taylor and Jesse Mirco. Mirco — a graduate student — will depart after this season, but if Vanderbilt can retain LePak and Taylor, it will boast one of the strongest special teams units in the country again in 2025. Their return would likely also bring more top-tier special teams talent to West End. For now, though, the Commodores’ special teamers will gear up for postseason play.
Aiden Rutman, Sports Editor: It’s still Diego Pavia; there’s really no sense in pretending like he isn’t the heart and soul of this Vanderbilt team. He’s been banged up for what feels like the majority of this season, but we’ve all seen what he’s capable of when healthy. He’ll now have plenty of time to rest up and rehab, as Vanderbilt likely won’t be playing in the next two weeks. He’s not going to be 100% — I’m guessing he’ll need a whole offseason of rehab to get to that point — but if he can replicate some of that early-season magic, it won’t matter. When Pavia is firing on all cylinders, Vanderbilt can beat anybody.
What’s been the biggest contributor to Vanderbilt’s three-game losing streak?
Hernandez: Across this three-game losing streak, Vanderbilt’s defense has been, for lack of a better term, swiss cheese. The Commodores have given up over 450 yards and have allowed more than 6.5 yards per play in all three of their losses. The biggest issue has been Vanderbilt’s seemingly absent pass rush. Vanderbilt has logged a singular sack across the last three contests and is tied for 14th in the SEC in sacks. Granted, its defensive line has dealt with injury issues, but the lack of a defined talent on the edge has stifled any potential for pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Lea’s defense has been unable to generate pressure with three or four rushers, forcing Vanderbilt to lean on blitzing — leaving a vulnerable secondary at the mercy of opposing quarterbacks. These struggles have highlighted how desperately Vanderbilt needs to address its defensive line in the portal.
Ashleigh Provoost, Sports Copy Editor: Vanderbilt’s ability to convert on third and fourth downs has been sorely lacking these past few weeks. Compared to a season average of 43.9% for third down conversions and 53.85% for fourth down, the last three games have seen those percentages at 36.36% and 33.33%, respectively. In the still (almost) unbelievable Alabama game, those numbers sat at 66.7% and 100%. These poor conversion rates are a testament to an offense lacking the same fire that fans saw in the first half of the season — in part due to a seemingly injured Pavia. That lack of emotion really hurt the Black and Gold’s ability to keep their offense on the field, and points have been hard to come by since then.
What grade would you give the regular season?
Vincent Xu, Deputy Sports Editor: I would give this season an A for Vanderbilt’s standards. I would hesitate to give it better than a D in relation to the SEC as a whole, though. This season was a huge turnaround for Lea and Co., but a blind assessment of Vanderbilt’s season does not yield anything super impressive. The team ended the regular season 6-6, far from the SEC Championship game or playoff contention — and I would argue that both are the standard for all SEC teams. Vanderbilt qualified for a bowl game, so it earned a passing D grade, but wins over Kentucky and Auburn are nothing to write home about. The win over Alabama was sensational, but it is leveled in my mind by the loss to Georgia State.
Oelhafen: I will give this season a B, but it could have been far better. The Commodores aced their midterm exam, knocking off Alabama and Kentucky in the fifth and sixth games of the season, respectively. However, as some Vanderbilt students will understand, the team failed its final. The Commodores put forth a lackluster effort in their final three games, as an injured Pavia failed to ignite their offense. An array of missed tackles and blown coverages didn’t make Lea’s defense look any better. Granted, expectations have adjusted this season, as bowl eligibility seemed like a distant dream back in August. However, a B is far from a failing grade, and Lea and Co. will hope to bounce back in the bowl game.
Provoost: I’ll be an optimist here and go with a B+. If you look at the surface level of the program in terms of number of wins, Vanderbilt defied all expectations with six (and a potential seventh). The program has drastically changed since the two-win seasons of recent years, and it’s clear that there’s been a significant shift in a positive direction on West End. Even though the second half of the season wasn’t strong, the Commodores proved their mettle and still have what it takes to be a competitive program. I’d like to think that the Georgia State loss and Alabama win almost cancel each other out, but losses to South Carolina and LSU still loom large enough to keep this season from being A-worthy. But blowing up the internet and making national headlines has to count for something, right?
What’s Vanderbilt’s biggest need in the transfer portal?
Hall: Vanderbilt’s most significant need in the transfer portal is weapons at both the tight end and wide receiver positions. Pavia and offensive coordinator Tim Beck had few options across both these groups, and they faltered because of it. The targets they did have, such as Eli Stowers and Junior Sherrill, were relied on a little too heavily as a result. Opposing teams made note of this dependency and easily eliminated Pavia’s options in the latter half of the season. This issue greatly contributed to a stalled-out offense that entirely depended on Pavia’s legs. Some significant portal additions to Beck’s pass-catching groups could make his offense even more potent next season and draw some more talent to Vanderbilt’s quarterback room in turn.
Jayce Pollard, Non-Revenue Sports Specialist: Vanderbilt’s secondary has struggled to contain opponents in all four years under Lea, and that fact has come to a head recently during the team’s losing streak. Vanderbilt’s developmental program isn’t working for corners and safeties — not to mention it will likely lose both De’Rickey Wright and CJ Taylor — so it’s high time to bring in outside talent to help fill one of the team’s most obvious gaps. Quarterback might be the flashiest answer to this question, but Vanderbilt’s secondary has let it down in big moments this year. Think back to the Georgia State loss and ask yourself what the biggest downfall was in those critical final drives. It wasn’t the offense; it was a porous secondary that let the Panthers do whatever they wanted. It’s about time that gets fixed.
Who should be Vanderbilt’s number one priority to retain?
Pollard: Once again, it may not be the splashiest selection, but give me Brock Taylor. If Vanderbilt’s going to continue playing like a Big Ten team on offense, then it has to take a page out of the Big Ten playbook and make special teams a priority. Plenty of big-name programs have struggled with special teams in big moments this season (I’m looking at you, Ohio State), and at least one of them will undoubtedly flash big money at Taylor. The question is this: Are Vanderbilt’s boosters really prepared to pay top dollar for kicking? We’re about to find out.
Rutman: This answer is simple for me — Randon Fontenette. I’ve sung the sophomore’s praise all season on Live from West End, and for good reason. He has been Vanderbilt’s most versatile defender, acting as something of a swiss-army knife as a pass rusher and safety from the STAR position. The former TCU transfer has logged sacks, tipped passes and interceptions throughout 2024 and possesses the frame (6’2, 220 lbs.) to make an impact at the NFL level. Long story short: Vanderbilt found a gem in Fontenette. Now, the Commodores will have to open up Microsoft PowerPoint — and perhaps their wallets — to prove that Nashville is the place for him.
