2023 was certainly a less-than-ideal year for Vanderbilt, as it struggled immensely, posting a 2-10 record and going winless in the SEC. After losing a ton of talent to the transfer portal this offseason, the Commodores have a completely new look. With Tim Beck taking over as offensive coordinator and head coach Clark Lea stepping in as the defensive play-caller, fans can expect a whole new scheme filled with all new players in 2024. Let’s answer some of the biggest questions hanging over Vanderbilt ahead of its matchup with Virginia Tech this weekend.
Who do you think will play more against Virginia Tech, Diego Pavia or Nate Johnson? Why?
David Hernandez, Lead Sports Analyst: In all fairness, as the newly elected captain and presumed frontrunner in the quarterback battle, Pavia will likely get the start and most of the snaps against Virginia Tech. His familiarity with Beck’s system and overall game experience makes him the clear choice to start the season against the formidable Hokies. However, I do not want to cancel out the possibility of Johnson appearing in specific sets or situations. Vanderbilt tight end Eli Stowers was used in certain packages last year for New Mexico State, running quick option plays lined up at quarterback, a role in which Johnson could also shine. Johnson’s athletic ability is undeniable, and it’d be far-fetched to think that Beck wouldn’t find a way to get home-run-hitting speed on the field. Although no Vanderbilt fan wants to witness another fiasco over what quarterbacks will play, Pavia leading the charge and Johnson sneaking in a run here and there isn’t a terrible recipe.
Jonah Barbin, Sports Podcast Producer: It’s Pavia. Plain and simple. Lea has said that he is leaving the decision surrounding the quarterback battle to the former New Mexico State coaching duo of Jerry Kill and Beck. Now the chief consultant to the head coach and offensive coordinator here at Vanderbilt, Kill and Beck wouldn’t have brought their quarterback with them unless they intended for him to play. While neither Pavia or Johnson has looked fantastic in camp, Pavia just led New Mexico State to a ten-win season, its first since 1960, and notably beat Auburn by three touchdowns in his only SEC battle last year. With all that being said, I think there will certainly be a mix of both QBs throughout the season. Johnson is a better pure runner than Vanderbilt’s 2022 quarterback Mike Wright and could certainly be explosive while serving in a similar role to the one Wright used to play for the Commodores. Pavia has a higher floor, but Johnson’s running ability and strong arm give him a much higher ceiling. It’s Pavia’s job to lose, but Johnson waits in the wings if he can hone his talents.
Aiden Rutman, Sports Editor: Totally agree with everything that David and Jonah said above. Especially with his recent naming as one of Vanderbilt’s five captains for the 2024 season, Pavia seems to be in the driver’s seat. That said, it’s worth noting that Johnson is a redshirt sophomore, and keeping him involved and happy is probably key to the Commodores’ future plans. A year sitting behind Pavia and perfecting his mechanics could be greatly beneficial for Johnson, but in this current transfer portal era, Vanderbilt must tread carefully. He’s a superstar-level athlete who needs to have the ball, even if it’s just in run-specific packages.
What position group are you most confident in this season? What about the least?
Hernandez: The position group I’m most confident in is the secondary, specifically the safeties. While Wyoming transfer Kolbey Taylor and Martel Hight will be interesting to watch at corner, the safeties have a unique blend of skillsets that will be exciting to see in action. There will be program veterans in the secondary with CJ Taylor moving from linebacker and the ever-present De’Rickey Wright working next to him. Alongside them are fresh faces in TCU transfer Randon Fontenette, who will line up at Vanderbilt’s STAR position and preseason True Freshman All-American Dontae Carter. This much-improved safety room could help set the tone defensively.
The position group with the most glaring question marks is the receivers. Losing Will Shepherd and London Humphreys in the transfer portal was a brutal blow, but it also left a lot of room for receivers to step up. The expected duo will be Quincy Skinner Jr. and Junior Sherill, yet there will be competition at WR3, too. Run-first offense or not, the receiving core has a role to play, and Vanderbilt desperately needs someone to break out.
Vincent Xu, Sports Copy Editor: The tight end room is arguably Vanderbilt’s most impressive on paper. If I had to bet on one position group to stay the same or improve this season, the tight ends would be a sure thing. Last season, they put together an underwhelming 333 yards — but a renovated roster could pump up production. The elephant in the room is redshirt sophomore Cole Spence, who is listed at 6’7” and 243 lbs. After spending the 2023 season on the sideline with a torn ACL, Spence impressed in fall camp to earn the clear TE1 spot. However, the depth at tight end is particularly special. Right behind Spence stands former New Mexico State tight end Eli Stowers, who posted more receiving yards (366) last year than Vanderbilt’s whole tight end unit. A platoon of high-potential talent reinforces Spence and Stowers. Sophomore Kamrean Johnson grabbed ten catches last season and could surely step in if needed. But if not, Tim Beck can fall back on graduate Emmanuel Adebi.
Call my take hot, but the group I am least confident in is the quarterbacks. While I would describe my typical Vanderbilt Football outlook as optimistic, placing too much trust in the unit after its shaky showing in fall camp would be irresponsible. While Pavia produced a spectacular 2023 season at New Mexico State in Beck’s system, he is unproven against SEC competition aside from Auburn — a team that is by no means a representative sample of the conference. Johnson is a top-rated talent, but he has not shown any consistency on the field. The group shows significant promise, especially with Beck calling the shots from the sideline. However, to place confidence in the quarterback room at this stage would be the same as letting a student driver behind the wheel of a semi.
What can Vanderbilt’s offense take advantage of against Virginia Tech’s defense?
Rutman: This is certainly a difficult question to answer. As Barbin and I discussed on Live from West End earlier this week, of the 29 total players who played 300-plus snaps for the Hokies last year, 25 are back. Moreover, 9 of 11 defensive starters are back for defensive coordinator Chris Marve. That development doesn’t bode well for a Vanderbilt offense that lost its top three quarterbacks, top three wide receivers and projects to have three new offensive linemen — lot of continuity on one side versus a lot of uncertainty on the other. That said, Virginia Tech was relatively middle of the pack when it came to stopping the run in 2023, as its 149.3 rush yards per game ranked seventh in the ACC. Vanderbilt’s offensive line will be improved from last season, adding experience and size across the board. Sedrick Alexander, who was perhaps the best true freshman rusher in the SEC in 2023, will look to take a step forward early on and make a difference for Vanderbilt.
Grace Hall, Deputy Sports Editor: The first matchup Vanderbilt’s offense should take advantage of is utilizing its run game. The Hokies have a good pass rush, one that held opposing offenses to just 250 throwing yards per game last season, and was second in the ACC in sacks. As Aiden mentioned above, this means the run game will be crucial. Vanderbilt’s offense should be better equipped to do this under Beck’s offensive scheme, which creates more deception with the run game. Additionally, Vanderbilt’s offensive line is one of the most improved groups. It should be able to create room for the run game, likely switching positions depending on the play being called. Once the run game has been established, Vanderbilt’s offense should be able to throw the ball on shorter slant and corner routes to create room between the line and the secondary. Virginia Tech is a team Vanderbilt has to wear down with consistent downfield movement, so the Commodores need to play tough through third down.
What does Vanderbilt’s receiver room look like this season as compared to last?
Xu: It’s been a complete overhaul. Vanderbilt only has three returners on the depth chart, none of whom recorded more than 20 catches last year. To be fair, Junior Sherrill and Quincy Skinner both recorded exactly 20, but the outlook is still bleak for a program that lost its top three targets to the portal. Perhaps Vanderbilt’s most talked about offseason addition has been new strength coach Robert Stiner, the new director of football sports performance. The difference in strength and speed has been tangible over fall camp — notably in Junior Sherrill, who may be able to replicate Jayden McGowan’s blazing jet sweep from last season. Transfers and freshmen flesh out the rest of the depth chart, and former Red Raider Loic Fouonji has seemingly risen further than originally expected While he won’t start, he’ll certainly play often. Fouonji is a 6’4” deep threat who could be a big target if Vanderbilt chucks up a prayer.
Henry Oelhafen, Deputy Sports Editor: Vanderbilt’s wide receiver core appears to be a weaker point of the offense this season. With key departures in Humphreys, McGowan and Sheppard during the offseason, Lea looked to the portal to fill out a stronger receiver room. He struggled to find much. Lea added Fouonji and Ole Miss’s Jeremiah Dillon for the 2024 season. Yet, following fall camp, neither seem to be the top targets in Beck’s offense. Sherrill and Skinner seem to be the frontrunners for the top two spots. Still, I think the wide receiver room will play less of an important role this season than last. With two mobile quarterbacks, Pavia and Johnson, I expect a creative, run-led offense with short passing being put at a premium. There might be a breakout star amidst Vanderbilt’s relatively unproven receivers who could lead this offense to new heights. For now, that candidate has yet to emerge.
Hall: Vanderbilt’s receiver room has more question marks starting this season than last. As Henry and Vincent mentioned earlier, the losses of Sheppard and Humphreys in the offseason marked brutal blows to the Commodore depth chart, accounting for just over 1,100 total yards. However, this is not to say that there isn’t talent in the WR room. Instead, I’ll go for the optimistic approach; these players are perfectly poised to have a breakout season in an offense that will need them to perform. Skinner has three seasons of experience in the program and the offense will need him to be both a leader and a playmaker. Sherrill, who had an impressive season as a freshman, will also need to expand his game this season. Combined, the pair brought in just under 45 percent of the offensive generation that Sheppard and Humphreys did. While Vanderbilt will likely use more two tight end sets and lessen the immediate need for wide receivers, someone, if not both of the top wide receivers, will need to break out.
How hot is Lea’s seat?
Jayce Pollard, Assistant Sports Specialist: In last season’s closing mailbag, I asked what it meant for Vanderbilt Football if Lea wasn’t on the hot seat. This year, I open with the same question. What does it say about this program if Lea, after going 9-27 through three seasons and 2-22 in the SEC, isn’t on the hot seat? It means that Vanderbilt isn’t a serious SEC program. That’s also the case because the Commodores aren’t spending serious SEC money and boasting serious SEC NIL and facilities. Lea isn’t on the hot seat because Vanderbilt Athletics doesn’t have expectations of anything else. The man at the top gets paid the same, whether it’s a home fan or a road fan filling the seats. Every fanbase wants to travel to Nashville, so someone will occupy enough seats to keep the people at the top happy, and that means no regime change after another sub-.500 season. Welcome to West End. Please enjoy the (same old) show.
Oelhafen: It was a difficult pill for Vanderbilt fans to swallow after the Commodores went 2-10 (0-8 SEC) last season under Lea. In fact, if the head coach at most other SEC schools had the same results as Lea, they would be long gone. However, with the current landscape of Vanderbilt Athletics, Lea’s seat is far from hot. The fourth-year head coach is inextricably linked to the Vandy United campaign, and athletic director Candice Lee will want to keep him around at least until the ongoing construction of the football stadium is complete. In my opinion, that buys Lea the 2025 season, no matter the outcome of this year. Also, with the entirely new staff, including Beck and Kill, the athletic department will want to give this group of coaches time to gel and find success. Even though the reality that Lea might be around for at least another year is scary to some, anything is possible. If the Commodores produce another 2-10 record this season, there might be significant pressure on the athletic department to let Lea go. Regardless, I don’t see it happening anytime soon.
What’s a record prediction for Vanderbilt in 2024?
Pollard: The 95% confidence interval for this team is from 2-10 to 5-7, with 3-9 being the most likely outcome. Alcorn State, Georgia State and Ball State should all be wins — and if they’re not, we need to seriously revisit the hot seat question asked above. The big question is whether Vanderbilt can snag a fourth win out of the remaining slate. Could it be Virginia Tech? South Carolina? Kentucky? Someone else? Hosting the Gamecocks on Nov. 9 seems to be the most fruitful opportunity, but that’s a game in which I also expect the Commodores to be underdogs. Vanderbilt got crushed 47-6 by South Carolina last season despite the Gamecocks not making a bowl. The Commodore faithful might think the 2024-25 team will be better on both sides of the ball, but only time will tell. For now, I’ll stick with 3-9 and hope for competitive games into November.
Barbin: I largely agree with Jayce — except I don’t see Virginia Tech as a game the Commodores will hang around in. Five wins is certainly the max, so no bowl game this year for Vanderbilt. Alcorn State and Ball State have to be wins, if they are not, Lea’s seat certainly gets hotter (although he is not going anywhere before the completion of Vandy United). Georgia State on the road won’t be easy, but it is certainly a game that the Commodores have a fair shot of winning. The two SEC games that Commodore fans should have circled on their schedule occur back-to-back weeks at the beginning of November — Auburn and South Carolina. Kill, Beck, Pavia and New Mexico State were able to march into Jordan-Hare Stadium and dismantle Auburn by a score of 31-10. I think Auburn will be a better team than they were last year, but Beck’s scheme is clearly capable of picking their defense apart. Couple that with the fact that Auburn will be coming into this matchup off a grueling SEC gauntlet of Oklahoma, Georgia, Missouri and Kentucky, and the Commodores might just have a shot to steal one. South Carolina is another less intimidating SEC opponent that Vanderbilt will get a shot at on their home turf, but none of that has meant much for the Commodores in their recent matchups against the Gamecocks. I’ll be slightly more optimistic than Jayce — the Commodores will win three nonconference games and steal one of those aforementioned SEC games: 4-8.
