Vanderbilt Baseball has developed an impressive array of big league pitchers over the past decade, but perhaps none have been as highly touted as Jack Leiter. The 6’1” right-hander dominated SEC competition for the Commodores in 2020 and 2021, propelling his team to the College World Series Championship Series during the latter year. He was then selected second overall by the Texas Rangers in the 2021 MLB draft and has since made his big league debut this past April.
First drafted in the 20th round by the New York Yankees in 2019, Leiter opted to honor his commitment to Vanderbilt. Through his two years on West End, he posted a dazzling 2.08 ERA — the third lowest for a starting pitcher in Vanderbilt history — and struck out 201 batters across 125 innings. Leiter’s tenure in Nashville was marked by several iconic performances, including a no-hitter against the South Carolina Gamecocks in his very first SEC start.
Leiter was dominant in college, but he’s faced far more adversity since arriving in the majors this past April. Struggling to establish a rhythm, he has bounced up and down between AAA several times. After tearing up his final two stars in the minors (20 strikeouts and 2 earned runs across 9.1 innings pitched), Leiter was recalled on August 28th, where his struggles returned. Still, his dynamic pitch mix and textbook mechanics still have him slotted as the Rangers’ 4th ranked prospect, according to mlb.com. With that, let’s dive into the specifics of Leiter’s repertoire and learn more about why his ceiling is as high as ever.
Lively fastball
When describing Leiter’s fastball, one word comes to mind: electric. The righty’s heater has always been his best pitch, generating an excellent grade of 70 on Baseball America’s scouting report. Sitting at 96.4 miles per hour and topping out at 99.6, Leiter’s fastball has just 12 inches of vertical drop — 3 inches below league average — thus giving the illusion of a “rising” fastball that’s notoriously difficult to square up. Leiter also generates a well-above-average 6.9 inches of extension on his pitches, giving hitters less time to react to his fastball while creating the perception of a faster pitch.
Despite these elite traits, hitters have slugged .662 against Leiter’s heater in the big leagues. This high slugging percentage stems from a combination of Leiter’s command issues and an overreliance on his fastball, allowing batters to anticipate and consequently punish the pitch. The good news is that his fastball’s fundamentals are still very promising, with FanGraphs giving it 135 stuff+ rating, 35 points above league average. Improved location — particularly elevating it in favorable counts—could lead to his fastball generating more whiffs and weaker contact in the future.
Wipeout slider
Much like many of MLB’s premier fastball pitchers — Gerrit Cole, Spencer Strider, Shane Bieber, etc. — Leiter pairs his heater with a sharp slider. Thrown 29% of the time since his arrival in MLB, Leiter’s slider sits at 86.8 mph, topping at 91.1. Specifically, Leiter throws a gyro slider, a relatively high velocity, offspeed pitch with a tight, bullet-like spin. Thrown almost exclusively to right-handed hitters, the slider’s high velocity, combined with its above-average spin rate (2,542 rotations per minute compared to the league average 2,400), gives it the potential to be an elite complement to his fastball.
Like his fastball, hitters have found success against Leiter’s slider so far in the big leagues, batting .289 on the pitch. One possible explanation for this is the fact that Leiter often throws his slider in counts that favor the hitter, with its highest usage coming in 1-0, 2-1 and 3-2 counts. Its 108 stuff+ grade shows the slider is still an above-average pitch, and like his fastball, should grade out much better over time.
Rounding out the arsenal
Within Leiter’s search for a reliable tertiary pitch, particularly one that can neutralize left-handed hitters, he has leaned on his curveball. Although he’s only thrown it 11.9% of the time, Leiter’s hook has actually been his most effective pitch in MLB, with opponents managing just a .118 average against it. With a little less break than the average curve, but thrown with more velocity, it has proven an effective tool for both stealing strikes early in the count and getting swings and misses when ahead.
Leiter has also tested out a cutter, a relatively new addition to his repertoire, mostly used against lefties in place of his slider. Coming in at 91 mph with four inches of glove-side break, his cutter could develop into an effective alternative to his fastball. That said, Leiter has used the pitch less than 3% of the time so far in the bigs, a sign that he may not yet be confident with his command. The pitch grades out to an about average cutter (99 stuff+ on Fangraphs) but the more he uses it, the better the results of his 4-seam fastball will be.
With both his slider and cutter moving arm side, Leiter has also experimented with a changeup exclusively against left-handed hitters. Leiter’s changeup averages 89 miles per hour on the radar gun and almost takes the shape of a sinker, generating a lot of weak, ground-ball contact. While the early returns on his changeup are promising, he has only thrown it a total of 38 times with the Rangers. If the righty wants to get lefties out more consistently, he will need to further develop this changeup to counteract his other offspeed pitches.
The moral of the story: Leiter’s early MLB struggles are not indicative of his potential and arm talent. The raw tools that made him a standout on West End are still very much present. With an electric fastball, promising slider and continued development of three additional pitches, Leiter’s arsenal is as promising as any young pitcher’s in the game.
