The College Football Playoff announced Dec. 1, 2022 the institution of the 12-team playoff to be implemented in 2024, expanding from the prior four-team model. The original change came about due to the frequent backlash that teams deserving of bids to the Playoffs were left out. However, even in 2025, that same problem has arisen. The 2025 CFP conversation may be the most intense it has ever been, putting real question marks over how the playoffs will be restructured going forward. 

With championship Saturday looming, the committee’s criteria for selecting teams appear inconsistent and confusing. In fact, with the possibility of certain scenarios this weekend, the field and the criteria will become even more muddled. If Duke beats No. 17 Virginia, will the CFP feature two Group of Six teams? If No. 25 James Madison loses alongside Virginia, could we potentially be staring at a 10-3 Kennesaw State team in the playoffs? If No. 11 BYU gets blown out by No. 4 Texas Tech, does the conversation shift between No. 10 Notre Dame and No. 13 Miami? If the reverse happens, both Notre Dame and Miami could be left out. If Alabama loses by a sizeable margin to Georgia, what considerations will be taken for the Crimson Tide against the rest of the bubble?  

Regardless of how this all plays out, it’s evident that the system is flawed, and as of right now, there is no clear solution.  

The current predicament 

At the moment, Vanderbilt’s playoff chances, at least in the eyes of the Committee, are near zero. Before the latest CFP Rankings, ESPN only gave the Commodores a 6% chance to make the playoffs. Right now, the Commodores aren’t listed on the playoff predictor at all. For the first time, a 10-2 SEC team isn’t even listed in the conversation for a playoff spot, merely disregarded as a good story and nothing more. 

According to the College Football Playoff Committee, the teams in the playoff conversation will be evaluated with the following criteria: strength of schedule, head-to-head competition, comparative outcomes of common opponents and other relevant factors, such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance. That, along with the evaluation of current play, provides a rather broad set of criteria that doesn’t quell the concerns of teams potentially left out of the playoffs altogether. Teams on the outside looking in, such as Miami, BYU, Texas and Vanderbilt, believe they’ve done more than enough to make the playoffs. The Committee, at least for now, believes otherwise. 

Check the resume 

If you stripped the Vanderbilt name away from the Commodores’ resume, in most years, they would be a playoff team without a doubt. At 10-2 within the hardest conference in college football, Vanderbilt has accumulated a No. 11 strength of record and a No. 22 strength of schedule. For comparison, among all teams considered in the CFP conversation, Vanderbilt has the fifth-highest SOS, with teams like Miami (No. 44), BYU (No. 35), and Utah (No. 57) lagging behind.  

Counting the ranking of teams at the time of play, Vanderbilt has four ranked wins and six wins against top-50 teams in ESPN’s Football Power Index. Not to mention, Vanderbilt is playing the best football it has had the entire season, riding a three-game winning streak with back-to-back dominant performances against Kentucky and a ranked Tennessee team on the road. Arguably, the Commodores are one of, if not the hottest, teams in college football. Yet somehow, after a three-touchdown victory on the road at one of the loudest stadiums in America, Vanderbilt dropped a spot in the rankings. 

The only question mark hanging over Vanderbilt is the evaluation of its two losses. Both losses are quality losses on the road against ranked SEC teams. While it does hurt Vanderbilt when it comes to head-to-head matchups, it also shows that the Commodores have zero bad losses, whereas Alabama dropped its season opener to Florida State and Texas lost to a currently 4-8 Florida team. 

Tale of the tape 

Beyond the resume, the quality of play matters. We’ve seen plenty of occasions where teams allowed in the playoffs have been massively outmatched, leading to blowouts between what the committee has deemed to be the best and most deserving in the nation. Even if you disagree with the weight of the resume, the stats and the tape prove that Vanderbilt is playing some of the best ball in the nation right now. 

The Commodores’ offense has been firing on all cylinders, especially in the month of November. At this moment, Vanderbilt ranks No. 11 in total yards per game, No. 8 in points per game, and No. 1 in yards per play in the entire nation. Advanced analytics also favor the Commodores, with Vanderbilt being No. 2 in points per drive (No. 1 if tempo adjusted) and among the leaders in offensive efficiency. On the defensive end, Vanderbilt has completely shut down opposing offenses throughout the month. This included being the first team to hold the Volunteers under 400 yards.  

This doesn’t even mention Diego Pavia, the star quarterback who finds himself tucked right into the frontrunner conversation for the Heisman Trophy. In some ways, it’s wrong to call Vanderbilt’s season magical or one of a kind. It’s wrong to call it a Cinderella story. This team is a real threat that has proven itself with a gauntlet of an SEC schedule. 

The narratives 

CFP committee chair Hunter Yurachek had a rather head-scratching answer to a question about Vanderbilt after the rankings were released. He was asked about why Vanderbilt, at 10-2, was ranked so far below other 10-2 SEC teams and a 9-3 Texas.  

“The committee has a great deal of respect for Vanderbilt and what they have achieved, an amazing season, a 10-win season,” Yurachek said. “When you look at their schedule, now that Tennessee is no longer ranked, they just don’t have a signature win. They’ve got wins against LSU, Missouri, and Tennessee. Missouri and Tennessee were previously ranked in our poll. They are no longer ranked in our poll.” 

According to Yurachek, Vanderbilt doesn’t possess a signature win that Miami and even Utah have. Not to mention, Yurachek gave questionable insight into Vanderbilt’s lack of movement in the rankings. 

“I think it’s what happened around Vanderbilt this week,” Yurachek said. “Texas getting a win against Texas A&M who’s ranked third, Miami getting a win at a ranked Pittsburgh team, BYU winning against Central Florida.” 

This, frankly, doesn’t answer anything. What is essentially being said is that Vanderbilt got nothing from winning, and the teams that lose to Vanderbilt get demolished in the rankings. The Committee isn’t even evaluating Vanderbilt as a strong team that proves to be a quality loss for any team. Vanderbilt is being evaluated as the bizarre outlier that the committee never considered. 

That’s been reflected all season. When a ranked team usually loses, especially one playing another ranked team or one ranked high enough, they slip a little but not drastically. South Carolina, which had been ranked No. 11, fell out of the rankings completely after losing to Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt beat No. 18 Tennessee on the road, and the Vols fell out of the rankings altogether with the ‘Dores sinking one spot too.  

It is well known that Miami has a signature win because they beat Notre Dame. But that same team lost to an unranked Louisville and SMU. They beat a ranked Pittsburgh, which is also now not ranked. Notre Dame, which also has two quality losses against ranked teams, gets the benefit of having one win against a currently ranked USC, which only fell two spots after losing to Oregon for its third loss of the season. 

This is less about Vanderbilt and more about the playoff system in general. I will completely understand if Vanderbilt, as predicted, falls outside of the playoffs. But this year, more than ever, has put the problems of the committee’s process on full display. There exists a world where Miami, Texas and Notre Dame all drop right out of the playoffs. Three teams, alongside Vanderbilt, that could genuinely go out and win a national championship.  

Fans, players and coaches of all the bubble teams will have one question if they’re left on the outside: “Why not us?” 

At the moment, the Committee can’t deliver a concrete or consistent answer to any of those teams about why. The goalposts are endlessly shifting; the weight of certain criteria is constantly fluctuating on a week-to-week basis. I don’t believe the creators of the 12-team playoff foresaw the dilemmas it currently faces, and that is the problem. It was a temporary band-aid thrown onto a situation that has only evolved into an even worse predicament. 

This piece, in its entirety, is an opinion amongst a sea of other opinions. Nobody has the right answer or the right solution. Regardless, there has to be an agreement somewhere. The College Football Playoff and its committee are presiding over an unsound system, and if it doesn’t fix its issues in January 2026, these same conversations will be happening next year, too.