On paper, the ‘Dores should have lost to Missouri on Saturday. Vanderbilt was outgained by over 100 scrimmage yards and allowed the Tigers to convert four–of–five fourth downs. The Commodores also lost the time of possession battle by over 10 minutes. Despite these statistical negatives, the Commodores left FirstBank Stadium with a victory that propelled them to the No. 9 team in the country in the Week 10 AP Top 25. It was perhaps the most impressive defensive performance by Vanderbilt during Clark Lea’s tenure. However, both offenses looked sloppy as the teams struggled to get in a rhythm. Let’s look at the statistics behind this low scoring game.
Time Crunch
Vanderbilt has built its identity around controlling the clock under head coach Clark Lea. That time-of-possession focus has been a reliable formula for success, as, until Saturday, every Commodore victory also was a time-of-possession victory.
That streak ended when Missouri flipped the script, holding the ball for 13 more minutes than Vanderbilt. The Tigers’ defense — ranked No. 7 nationally in total defense by yards — stifled the Commodores’ offense, while Missouri’s methodical offensive drives chewed up the clock. Vanderbilt possessed the ball for 23:48 while Missouri possessed it for 36:12.
Missouri produced 376 total yards of offense — 206 passing and 170 rushing, its second-highest yardage output in SEC play this season.
Despite the yardage, the Tigers struggled to finish drives, missing a field goal and getting stopped by Vanderbilt at the goal line. And so, despite being outgained and outplayed at their own game, the Commodores won through their play in the red zone, scoring a perfect 2-for-2 on offense while holding Missouri to just 1-for-3. Regardless of its red-zone efficiency, Vanderbilt’s performance against Missouri exposed some of its offensive weaknesses.
Air time woes
Vanderbilt’s limited passing game was a driving reason that the Commodores scored only 17 points against Missouri. Vanderbilt averaged 12.9 yards per passing attempt, but that number distorts how ineffective the passing offense was, with Pavia completing just 53% of his passes. Additionally, 30% of Pavia’s passing came from yards after the catch, a clear sign that Vanderbilt was largely unable to spread the field of play. While Pavia’s inability to test SEC defenses deep has been a trend all season, Pavia hit a season low against Missouri.
This inability to effectively execute the passing game was especially devastating on a day that the rushing offense also faltered. Excluding MK Young’s 80-yard blitz in the third quarter, Vanderbilt averaged just 2.35 yards per rushing attempt. These rushing struggles are not entirely surprising as Missouri is ranked No. 11 in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game and No. 8 in total yards allowed per game. Despite this, Pavia and the Commodore receiver room need to be more effective, especially in third-and-long situations. The ‘Dores will have to show more consistency in the passing game if they are serious about winning a national championship.
Defense wins championships
The Commodores’ rush defense had a strong game against Missouri, limiting Ahmad Hardy from breaking off explosive runs, despite him rushing for 97 yards on 20 carries. Backup running back Jamal Roberts was outmatched by Vanderbilt’s front, rushing for just 22 yards on 10 carries and coughing up the game-changing fumble in the fourth quarter. Vanderbilt is the only team not to give up a single rushing touchdown against Missouri this season, and its stop on fourth-and-goal in the third quarter played a big part in the Commodores’ win.
Fear the Longhorns
Vanderbilt will travel to Austin, Texas, this week to play with the Texas Longhorns, who have one of the best run defenses in the country. Texas has allowed an average of just 81.3 scrimmage yards per game on the ground; Pavia must make smart decisions with the ball in his hand and the pass-catchers — especially Eli Stowers — will need to create space in the Longhorns’ secondary.
