Vanderbilt Women’s Basketball (22-10, 8-8 SEC) is officially dancing — it was selected as a No. 7 seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament. The Commodores will face 10-seed Oregon in the first round at Duke’s home arena in Durham, North Carolina, on March 21.
Oregon and Vanderbilt have faced off twice in program history, the last being in the 1994-95 season — a game that Vanderbilt won 82-54.
The stats
The Commodores ended the regular season ranked No. 22 in the NET rankings, and the Ducks ended their season ranked No. 41 (10 spots lower than Mississippi State — Vanderbilt’s worst loss of the season).
The Commodores are only 2-8 in Quad 1 games, but they are 5-1 in Quad 2 games and have no Quad 3 or 4 losses. The Ducks are 4-9 in Quad 1 games and 2-2 in Quad 2 games. They also have no Quad 3 or 4 losses. Oregon picked up notable wins this season versus then-No. 15 Baylor, No. 24 Iowa and No. 21 Michigan State. The Commodores sport notable wins versus No. 15 Tennessee (twice) and No. 19 Alabama, with their only nonconference loss coming against the aforementioned Michigan State in November.
“Every team in this tournament is a really good team. We will prepare for Oregon like we do for every other team — our conference has prepared us,” Vanderbilt head coach Shea Ralph said after Selection Sunday. “They’ve had a really good year. I know their coach well and they have really good players.”
Ducks to watch
While Vanderbilt is a more physical team overall, Oregon’s size in the post outmatches the Commodores. Oregon’s starting center, Phillipina Kyei, stands at 6’8 — five inches taller than Khamil Pierre at 6’3, the tallest player in the Commodores’ starting lineup. In Vanderbilt’s typical defense 5’10 Jordyn Oliver usually defends the post players, which creates an even greater mismatch that Oregon could try to exploit.
Despite her size, Kyei’s numbers are not extraordinary — she averages 7.5 points and 6.9 rebounds in 19 minutes per game. Pierre averages 2.8 more rebounds per game and 13 more points per game. Regardless, as shown by the majority of Vanderbilt’s conference losses — South Carolina, Mississippi State, Oklahoma and Texas — the Commodores have struggled against teams with a large interior presence. Vanderbilt may benefit from taking it at Kyei early. She is not a prolific shot blocker (0.9 per game) and is only a 61.7% free throw shooter. Getting her in foul trouble and forcing her to sit on the bench may create more lanes for Vanderbilt’s guards.
Even though the Commodores give up size and strength in the post, March basketball is typically a guards’ game. Vanderbilt’s guards are far superior to Oregon’s overall. Starting guard Deja Kelly is the only notable name on Oregon’s roster. The transfer from UNC leads the team in scoring and assists per game, averaging 11.6 and 3.4, respectively. These numbers pale in comparison to Mikayla Blakes’ 23.2 points per game, and even Vanderbilt’s third-leading scorer in Iyana Moore (12.6 points per game) scores more. Kelly does boast a strong advantage in tournament experience, though, having led the Tar Heels to four straight NCAA Tournament appearances during her time in Chapel Hill, reaching the Sweet 16 in 2022.
Stylistic clash
This game is going to be the ultimate battle of styles. Despite it being Oregon’s first year in the Big Ten, its playstyle fits well within the conference. The Ducks play at a slow, methodical pace — they have an adjusted tempo of 67.8, according to Torvik. They prioritize running a thorough half-court offense with high-percentage shots and ball movement. They do not typically get out very quickly in transition. The Commodores, on the other hand, play at a much faster pace (adjusted tempo of 72) and have seen success in their transition game throughout the season.
Oregon and Vanderbilt also approach the 3-point shot very differently. Oregon’s 3-point defense leaves much to be desired — opponents have shot 33.7% from deep against the team (310th in the NCAA). The Commodores shoot an average 33.9% from beyond the arc (7.1 makes on 20.9 attempts), and they should get plenty of open looks this game. Expect Moore and Blakes to shoot early and often. Oregon is also not an excellent 3-point shooting team — it averages 5.1 makes on 16.9 attempts per game. If Oregon beats the ‘Dores by the three-ball, it will be because of a highly uncharacteristic performance on its part.
Vanderbilt could force Oregon into sloppy mistakes by controlling the pace of play from tip by both utilizing its press and making quick transitions. If Oregon controls the pace, however, the Commodores will have to rely on disciplined defense and a thorough understanding of the scout to disrupt their offensive sets. Either way, whoever controls the pace will likely win this game.
Clutch games
This season, Oregon has shown that it can clutch up a game. The Ducks have won five games by two points or less this season and are 6-1 in games decided by four points or less. The Commodores have only played in two games this season decided by two points or less (versus Tennessee and Alabama) and they won both. In the two games where Vanderbilt has forced overtime, it is 1-1. Oregon also tends to come out with a vengeance at halftime — it has trailed by multiple possessions at the half in all of its last five victories. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, has been known to sometimes enter third-quarter scoring lulls or give up large runs to its opponents. If this game is extremely close, Oregon’s consistent success in tight games may serve it well.
In its first non-play-in Round of 64 game since 2014, Vanderbilt will have to utilize its strengths if it hopes to play the winner of Duke and Lehigh on Sunday. The game — which can be streamed on ESPNews — is set to tip off at 4:30 p.m. CDT on March 21 at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina.
