If there was ever any question as to whether Vanderbilt Men’s Basketball would make the NCAA Tournament, those doubts were quelled on Feb. 26. The ‘Dores just got their signature road win thanks to a hard-fought, scrappy victory over No. 12 Texas A&M. The win marks Vanderbilt’s fourth win over an AP Top 25 opponent this year, but all three of those previous wins came in the Commodores’ comfort zone at Memorial Gymnasium.
Head coach Mark Byington had, up to this point, struggled tremendously on the road in conference play. Vanderbilt limped into College Station with a 1-6 record in conference road games (as compared to a stellar 5-2 record at home) and opened as a 7.5-point underdog.
With the odds stacked against them, though, the Commodores showed the rest of the SEC what they’re made of, leaving Reed Arena with an 86-84 victory.
Vanderbilt entered the game as a true “bubble” team, according to Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology for ESPN. This win will undoubtedly move the team inside the NCAA Tournament bubble, at least for the time being. While a bid to the postseason — which would be Vanderbilt’s first since 2017 — isn’t guaranteed just yet, things are looking up. Bart Torvik has the Commodores at an 86.7% chance, which is the highest they’ve been all year.
Again, it isn’t a lock, but it’s pretty darn close.
Magic number one
Vanderbilt is one win away from being definitively in the NCAA Tournament, regardless of what happens through the remaining three games on its schedule or in the SEC Tournament.
Whether that win comes against No. 14 Missouri or bubble teams in Arkansas and Georgia doesn’t really matter. Truthfully, Vanderbilt has done enough with its three top-15 wins to justify a trip to March Madness no matter what. That said, if it finishes 0-3 down the stretch and flames out early at Bridgestone Arena, questions will be raised as to how deserving Vanderbilt really is. An 0-4 finish wouldn’t necessarily crush the Commodores’ odds — it would likely depend on the results of other bubble teams, particularly within the SEC — but it would mean that their path to an NCAA title would start as a “Last Four In” team in Dayton.
I’ve said it all year, and I’ll say it again: For Vanderbilt to be in this position, as a team that finished 9-23 last year and was picked to finish dead last in the SEC this year, is nothing short of incredible. Byington and his players deserve all the credit in the world for their grittiness and determination to get to this point.
A weathered storm
How many times this season have fans watched, horrified, as the Commodores jumped out to an early lead in the first half before completely disintegrating in the second?
An MJ Collins Jr. layup with 4:55 left in the first half yesterday gave Vanderbilt a 12-point lead, which it then relinquished almost immediately after as Texas A&M entered halftime trailing by only two. More of the same for the Black and Gold. A second-half implosion was imminent, right?
Not at all. In fact, Vanderbilt staved off a number of runs from Wade Taylor IV and the rest of the Aggies, including a stretch over the last 4 minutes and 11 seconds of the game that saw Vanderbilt fail to make a field goal. In fact, the only basket that Vanderbilt made after a dunk from JQ Roberts with 5:40 to play was a Tyler Nickel triple with 4:11 remaining. The Commodores used stellar free throw shooting, converting 28-of-36 attempts, to eke out this win.
Against all odds
How Vanderbilt managed to pull this win off given the adversity (foul trouble) it dealt with is nothing short of a miracle. The Commodores were charged with 17 fouls in the second half, and eight of those went to Devin McGlockton and Jason Edwards, two of the team’s most valuable players.
Jaylen Carey and Chris Manon both picked up two fouls in the second period as well. Edwards (4), McGlockton (5), Carey (4) and Manon (4) were all on the verge of fouling out for a significant portion of that second half, but Byington did an excellent job of utilizing his bench when needed. Roberts stepped in and provided nine critical minutes. Nickel played a game-high 31 minutes (more on him soon). Grant Huffman gave the team some serious playmaking on a night when AJ Hoggard just didn’t have it. The list goes on — Vanderbilt won this game despite getting into perhaps the worst foul trouble it has gotten into all year.
Nickel or triple?
That’s right, Nickel gets his own section. Vanderbilt’s catch-and-shoot specialist put on a clinic from wire-to-wire in College Station. He made the team’s first field goal of the game and provided steady offense all evening. The flamethrowing shooter has had his highs and lows in his first season on West End but he looks like he’s coming into his own right now.
The Virginia Tech transfer nailed a career-high seven 3-pointers against the Aggies. He went 3-for-6 against Ole Miss last weekend and made 3-of-5 on the road against Tennessee a few weeks ago. He has made three or more shots from deep in four of his last six games after doing so just four times in the team’s first nine SEC contests. Moreover, he only did it six times in the team’s 13 nonconference games against inferior competition. He’s playing with a swagger and confidence that he didn’t have earlier this season; he looks more relaxed on the hardwood.
In a lot of ways, this Vanderbilt group goes as Nickel goes. When he’s on, teams have to respect his range, and it gives players like Edwards, McGlockton and Collins better looks from downtown. When Nickel shoots well, the team shoots well. When Nickel struggles from deep, so does the team.
Vanderbilt will look for its fifth win over an AP Top 25 opponent — and third in a row — when it takes on the No. 14 Missouri Tigers in Memorial Gymnasium on March 1 at 5 p.m. CST.
