In head coach Mark Byington’s first season, Vanderbilt Men’s Basketball is exceeding expectations. Despite playing in the toughest conference in the country, the Commodores are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. However, after a pair of thrilling upset victories over then-No. 6 Tennessee and then-No. 9 Kentucky, Vanderbilt has lost four of its last five. A few weeks ago, The Hustler dove into the Commodores’ defensive weaknesses. Now, it’s time to explore the offensive end of the floor, and more specifically, Vanderbilt’s electric yet inconsistent half-court offense.
In Vanderbilt’s 12 SEC contests, it has averaged 73.5 points per game, which is solid but not spectacular, and ranks eighth in the conference over that stretch. Vanderbilt has thrived on fast-break points for much of this season. The Commodores forced turnovers in bunches and seamlessly turned them into offense, causing a nightmare for opponents. However, as SEC teams have adapted to this style, Vanderbilt’s fast break opportunities are much harder to come by. Instead, the Commodores must find a way to create consistent shots through their half-court offense.
When in their half-court offense, the Commodores play a lot of isolation ball, as graduate AJ Hoggard (4.5 assists per game) is the only player on the team with more than 2 assists per game. This strategy is highly volatile but relies on two unique players — junior guard Jason Edwards (17.5 points per game) and sophomore forward Jaylen Carey (16 points per game in his last four games). When those two are either off the court or struggling, Vanderbilt defaults to a more team-based approach through Devin McGlockton (10.8 points per game), Hoggard (10.5 points per game) and Tyler Nickel (10 points per game).
The result is a highly inconsistent half-court offense. At times, Byington’s crew can do nothing wrong. Then, as if a switch is flipped, they are incapable of scoring. Diving into the film, there are three key characteristics of Vanderbilt’s electric but unpredictable offense: Edwards’ microwave scoring ability, Carey’s monstrous presence in the paint and the rest of the roster’s crippling inability to create good looks for long periods of time.
Jason Edwards’ scoring ability
Byington hit the jackpot with Edwards, a transfer who put up 19 points per game at North Texas last year, albeit with poor efficiency (42% from the field and 34% from deep). Despite moving from Conference USA to the SEC, the junior has somehow maintained his scoring numbers and drastically increased his efficiency, shooting a solid 45.7% from the field and a marksman-like 38.5% from deep. He has also been consistent, tallying at least 10 points in every game of the year except for Mississippi State.
The Atlanta native is listed at only 6’1 (and that might be generous) but possesses an unmatched blend of quickness, start/stop ability and shooting touch. Furthermore, his lightning-fast release allows him to put up shots that would usually get blocked into the student section for other players his size. He also has a penchant for making bad shots that ordinarily have no right going in, let alone be shot at all. Sit back and enjoy a minute of pure scoring.
Jason Edwards’ Scoring Ability
Jaylen Carey’s interior presence
After a promising but incomplete season last year at JMU, Carey took some time to get going on West End. Now, he has developed into a monster in the paint. Over his last four games, the Florida native is averaging 15 points, 9 total rebounds and a mind-boggling 4 offensive rebounds per game. The sophomore is 6’8 but plays even bigger than that, as he consistently holds his own against the best bigs in the country.
Carey is a physical player who relishes in the “bully ball” aspect of the game. He is not afraid to use force down low, which often results in complete and utter domination. Furthermore, he has outstanding footwork and consistently maneuvers his way into a superior position when jockeying for rebounds. He is still a little rough around the edges with foul trouble and poor free throw shooting (58%), but all in all, Carey is Vanderbilt’s second-best offensive player.
Inability to stop the bleeding
Now it’s time to get critical. Vanderbilt’s scorers outside of Carey and Edwards all have extreme strengths — Nickel’s 3-point shooting, Hoggard’s driving ability, McGlockton’s touch, etc. — but are not remotely consistent. In most situations, this would be okay if one guy isn’t “on” for a period since another can pick up the slack. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work this way for the Commodores. When one guy is off, the entire team is off. When this happens, Vanderbilt’s opponent goes on momentum-shattering runs that seem interminable.
While college basketball is a “game of runs,” it’s quite difficult for any team to give up a run of at least nine points. This generally happens sporadically throughout a season — between timeouts and fouls, there are always opportunities to break up an opponent’s scoring efforts. Yet, in Vanderbilt’s last three games, it has surrendered five of these runs (for viewer safety, this is not including Oklahoma’s 23-0 run five games ago). Here is a quick list of the runs and their impact on the score: Tennessee’s 12-2 run to turn a 50-38 deficit into a 52-50 lead, Auburn’s 15-0 run to start the game, Auburn’s 9-0 run to turn a 49-48 deficit into a 57-49 lead, Texas’s 9-0 run to turn a 33-27 deficit into a 36-33 lead and Texas’s 10-0 run to turn a 44-44 tie into a 54-44 lead.
In these stretches, Vanderbilt’s offense goes silent. While some of it can be attributed to “good” missed shots, the majority of the blame falls on poor shot selection and turnovers. Thus, these runs are not unlucky — this is a trend. Vanderbilt holds onto the ball for too long into the shot clock, shoots a significant number of contested threes and has an inability to penetrate the paint.
Edwards and Carey need to continue carrying the offensive load. If they do, then Vanderbilt will be a dangerous team regardless of its devastatingly bad stretches. If this happens, and Vanderbilt stops allowing these runs, then the ‘Dores should have no problem getting into the Big Dance.
Vanderbilt Men’s Basketball will look to get a badly-needed signature road win as it travels to Rupp Arena to take on No. 17 Kentucky on Wednesday, Feb. 17, at 6 p.m CST.
