After a statement 75-69 win against Kentucky at Memorial Gymnasium on Jan. 25, the Commodores (16-4, 4-3) are ranked in the AP Poll for the first time since 2015. Head coach Mark Byington is showing why he was brought in to turn around the program, while Jaylen Carey — the transfer Byington brought over from James Madison — is beginning to cement himself as a key player on this squad with double-digit points in wins against Kentucky and Tennessee. The team’s plethora of transfers is developing chemistry and a key few, notably Jason Edwards and AJ Hoggard, are emerging as leaders of the squad.
With its loss to Texas A&M on Jan. 28, Oklahoma dropped to 2-5 in conference play. After an undefeated start to the season, the Sooners have lost five of their last seven games and currently sit at 15-5. On paper, Saturday’s matchup between the two teams is very even. ESPN’s BPI ranking, which measures team strength and is meant to be the best predictor of future performance, has Oklahoma and Vanderbilt as the 43rd and 51st-ranked teams in Division I, respectively. This matchup could determine momentum for both teams going into the back half of conference play. It also has NCAA Tournament implications, as both teams would be in the big dance if the season ended today. Neither is a lock to make the postseason, though, and a few key factors will determine which team comes out on top.
Star power vs. depth
These two teams differ immensely in their player makeup. Oklahoma relies on star power, with Jalon Moore and Jeremiah Fears averaging a combined 34.1 points and playing over 30 minutes per game. For Vanderbilt’s defense, the key will be limiting the impact of these two players’ playmaking ability and synergy.
On the other side of the floor, Vanderbilt’s strength comes from its depth. The Commodores have no players that average more than 26 minutes a game and eight that play between 19 and 26 minutes per game. The Commodores also have four players that average over 10 points a game, with Edwards leading the pack at 17.1. This distribution allows Vanderbilt to remain competitive if one or two players have an off night. For Oklahoma, the key will be to disrupt the offense and not allow the Commodores to get into a rhythm.
From Broadway
Vanderbilt’s recent success can be partially attributed to a dramatic increase in the team’s 3-point shooting percentage. The team was abysmal from behind the arc in its first four SEC matchups, averaging just 28.4% and featuring two performances where it shot under 20%.
The team has completely turned it around in its last three games, in large part due to recent success from Tyler Nickel, who averaged four 3-pointers during that stretch.
The Sooners will put the team’s recent success from deep to the test. Oklahoma boasts a strong defensive front led by Moore and Duke Miles. As a team, the Sooners rank sixth in the country in 3-point shooting percentage allowed at just 28.1% per game. Whether the Commodores can stay hot or Oklahoma’s defense stands firm will play a large part in the game’s outcome.
“Battle” for the boards
Both teams have struggled on the glass throughout the season so far. The Sooners rank dead last in the SEC in rebounds, averaging just 32.3 per game, while the Commodores are not far behind, averaging 35.5 boards per game. Vanderbilt’s lack of size is a key factor in the team’s rebounding struggles. Carey and Devin McGlockton, the team’s de facto centers, stand at 6’8 and 6’7, respectively. Meanwhile, the team’s last three opponents featured centers two to three inches taller than both of the Commodores’ big men. This size discrepancy made a huge difference, especially with a Vanderbilt group that consists primarily of smaller guards and forwards. Kentucky outrebounded Vanderbilt 43-30 and its size advantage was notable throughout much of the game. Byington reflected on this after the game, acknowledging how difficult it is to rebound in the SEC and how he felt his squad had performed well throughout the season.
In this upcoming matchup, the Commodores may be able to find success on the offensive glass. The Sooners also rank last in the SEC in offensive rebounds allowed per game while the Black and Gold have performed better, averaging 11.7 offensive rebounds per game. If the Commodores can take advantage of this and secure second-chance opportunities, they may be able to overwhelm Oklahoma’s defense.
Vanderbilt might be ranked, but that won’t make this game any easier — the SEC has proven to be a gauntlet this season, and no matchup can be overlooked. Byington will certainly have his team prepared for this clash with Oklahoma — Vanderbilt’s first time playing the Sooners in SEC basketball.
Vanderbilt will play Oklahoma on Feb. 1, at 2:30 p.m. CST at the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman, Oklahoma.
