The past few weeks have been a wild ride for Vanderbilt Women’s Basketball. Since our last Memorial Minutes, the Commodores traveled to Palm Springs, Florida, for the Acrisure Classic, securing a victory over Arizona before dropping their first game of the season to Michigan State in the final.
They then returned and dominated Appalachian State before picking up their second Power Four win of the season on the road against Miami. The Black and Gold then returned to Nashville and eclipsed 100 points for the third time this season in a win against Evansville.
Mikayla Blakes and Khamil Pierre continue to solidify their cases as one of the best duos in the country, as Blakes won her second and third SEC Freshman of the Week honors through the first two weeks of December while Pierre picked up an SEC Player of the Week award and set Vanderbilt’s single-game scoring record with 42 points against Evansville. The superstar sophomore has already put her name in the history books less than halfway into her stellar collegiate career.
Commodore Nation also learned that Sacha Washington will be sitting out for her entire senior season due to a blood clot in her right calf. Washington will likely redshirt this season and return next year to finish her eligibility, but losing a top player in a year as promising as this one is a tough pill to swallow. However, Washington has emerged as a cultural leader, inciting energy from the bench and acting as a mentor to the Commodores’ young core.
Nevertheless, this is one of the most exciting starts to a season in Vanderbilt Women’s Basketball history, with a big three that can give any opponent 20 points (or apparently 40) on any given night and can dominate defensively thanks to a dizzyingly fast pace of play. National media is starting to give the Commodores some much-needed attention as they creep closer and closer to a ranking in the AP Top 25.
There’s something different in the air this year for head coach Shea Ralph and Co. Still, despite the success, it’s clear that this team hasn’t reached its full potential — and that’s exciting. The team is already producing at a high level, so its next jump — when and if it occurs — could be legendary.
The turnover battle
The first thing one might notice watching this Vanderbilt team is its defense. Regardless of score or opponent, Ralph’s lineup will apply pressure from 92 feet for all 40 minutes.
Their press is energetic, wild and effective. Because of it, the Commodores have yet to lose a turnover battle this season and (more impressively) have forced over 20 turnovers in every game thus far. Yet, even with this seemingly unstoppable defensive pressure, Ralph is still not satisfied. In the team’s win against Appalachian State — a game in which the Commodores forced 21 turnovers and held their opponents to under 20% from 3-point range — Ralph said that she expected more on the defensive end when she rotates lineups, specifically referring to a second quarter that saw four Mountaineer turnovers and an 0-for-4 3-point showing.
“The second quarter, when I start making substitutions, can’t look that way,” said Ralph. “I don’t care how much you’re up by. We can never miss a beat.”
While Vanderbilt’s defense is already operating at an elite level, its offense represents a slight cause for concern. Despite forcing roughly the same amount of turnovers per game — an average of about 25 with highs of 36 and 30 — its own turnovers have much more variability. Looking at game trends, it seems that the better their opponent, the more turnovers the ‘Dores commit and the lower their turnover margin is.
Vanderbilt’s average turnover margin is 11.1 on the season, but it was just 3 against Arizona and Michigan State and 6 against Miami.
With better opponents looming in the SEC, this trend could become costly. We haven’t seen a game yet where the Commodores lose the turnover battle; what does it look like when they do? Can they rally around each other and push out a win despite falling short in their most dominant metric? Or is the turnover battle exactly what they depend on to win games?
The Commodores’ ball security — while maintaining their current defensive aggressiveness — will be pivotal. The one game that either of those metrics slips up in will likely be a massive wake-up call for Ralph & Co. and could become the season’s turning point, positively or negatively. When that game comes, we’ll see how the team responds.
New role, same game
Leilani Kapinus and Jane “Juice” Nwaba have been perfect transfer portal additions for Ralph, which past renditions of Memorial Minutes have harped on. The two graduate wings are “do it all” glue players who contribute in any way Ralph needs — one of the most valuable roles a player could play and one that goes completely unnoticed on most teams.
Kapinus recorded her second double-double of the season against Evansville, a performance that was rightfully overshadowed by Pierre’s record-setting scoring bout. The Hustler predicted Kapinus preseason as an impact player and Vanderbilt’s second unit commander. While this is true, it understates her importance to the Commodores’ success this season.
Kapinus has become a pseudo-starter. While she has not experienced a tip-off this season, Kapinus has logged in roughly 20 minutes per game — much of it with the starting unit. Her size and skill set allow her to sub in at almost any position, offering any and all starters breathers without witnessing a dip in production. Ralph has placed a heavy emphasis on subs to keep the game’s momentum flowing. Kapinus does just that, a quality very few players possess.
Of course, this is still not a historically natural position for Kapinus to occupy. Since her sophomore year at Penn State, Kapinus only came off the bench once and was a 1,000-point scorer. That doesn’t scream “key role player” to me. So how was she so quick to become an effective role player?
The graduate student never changed her play style. She’s always played with an emphasis on the little things while still dominating her team’s usage. She’s a two-time Big Ten Defensive First-Team player with elite off-ball skills on offense and immaculate efficiency. She also rebounds the ball like a big — 6.2 rebounds per game for her career — despite standing at just 5’10. She’s a team player through and through, as she has been throughout her entire career.
Expect a Kapinus breakout game in the near future and, based on her history, it will come when the team most needs it.
It’s about to mean more
It always feels good to be 10-1. But hasn’t this 10-1 felt too easy? Two Power Four wins, no ranked opponents and the only game decided within ten points was a loss to Michigan State. If college football has taught us anything, it's that scheduling easy non-conference games opens up an easier path to the postseason, but should we be concerned about Vanderbilt’s lack of non-conference strength?
Last year, for example, the Commodores went 13-1 through conference play — albeit the “cupcake” matches were much closer last year than this one — splitting their only two Power Five matchups. Despite the early-season success, conversations swirled around whether or not Vanderbilt’s non-conference schedule effectively prepared it for the rigor of the SEC. An SEC that, may I remind you, featured future WNBA top-10 picks Kamilla Cardoso, Angel Reese and Rickea Jackson. These concerns rang true. Vanderbilt dropped its first SEC game last year to Missouri before a slow season-long collapse, capped off by an upset by Florida in the first round of the SEC Tournament that nearly kept it out of the NCAA Tournament.
This season, Vanderbilt has faced even less preseason adversity and will face an even stronger SEC with the inclusion of Texas and Oklahoma. As of Dec. 16, the Commodores will face eight ranked teams in conference play, including four in a row from Jan. 5 to Jan 19. There’s reason to be nervous that the team won’t bounce back from this adversity, just like last season.
The NCAA’s NET rankings still have Vanderbilt up at No. 7. Ralph and the Commodores have shown immense talent. Pierre, Blakes, Iyana Moore and the rest of the squad look ready to battle, night in and night out. The entertainment value of conference play games will be unlike anything we’ve seen in Memorial Gymnasium for quite some time.
Whether or not Vanderbilt escapes with some victories is anyone’s guess. For now, the Black and Gold will have a trio of tune-up games to wrap up conference play. Vanderbilt will travel to Dayton, Ohio, for its matchup against Dayton on Dec. 19 at 6:00 p.m. CST.
