The first five weeks of the college football season have been a wild, wild ride for Vanderbilt Football and the rest of Commodore Nation. A shocking win over Virginia Tech and a subsequent thrashing of Alcorn State had the Black and Gold riding high, but all momentum came to a halt in Week Three. A trap game against Georgia State and a heartbreaking loss against then No. 7 Missouri left many fans wondering what could’ve been. If two or three plays had gone differently, the Commodores could have had a 4-0 record and top 15 ranking in the AP Poll. Instead, head coach Clark Lea’s group sits at 2-2 with a laundry list of questions. With Vanderbilt’s first bye week officially over, The Hustler’s sports staff tries to make sense of the madness.
Q. Can Vanderbilt still make a bowl game?
Aiden Rutman, Sports Editor: This question gets harder to answer every week. Not because the Commodores’ odds are necessarily dwindling — though back-to-back losses put them right where we expected during the preseason, at 2-2 through the bye week — but rather that the level of parity within the Southeastern Conference has reached a new level. Just when it seemed like Kentucky would be a winnable game for Vanderbilt, the Wildcats played No. 5 Georgia tight and then upset No. 12 Ole Miss on the road. South Carolina has been a winnable SEC game for Vanderbilt for years, but the Gamecocks also look formidable. That isn’t to say that Lea and Co. can’t reach six wins: I still think it’s well within reach. It’s just hard to say who those last four wins will come against.
All this is to say that I think Vanderbilt will be bowling in December. Ball State on Oct. 19 should be a walk-in-the-park. Let’s assume that Alabama, Texas and Tennessee are all losses. From there, the Commodores need to win three of four against Kentucky, Auburn, South Carolina and LSU. I’ll — perhaps blissfully optimistically — say the ‘Dores sneak into bowl eligibility with a 6-6 record.
Henry Oelhafen, Deputy Sports Editor: The Commodores could easily be 4-0 and ranked if a few plays had gone differently against Missouri and Georgia State. Like Aiden, I’m assuming Alabama, Texas and Tennessee are losses, meaning the Commodores will have to steal four games (out of five) to get to 6-6. Kentucky and South Carolina, two supposedly easier games on Vanderbilt’s schedule, have looked solid, with the former upsetting No. 12 Ole Miss in Oxford, Mississippi, on Saturday. Ball State should be a win, but it’s going to take some magic to knock off three SEC teams. Still, the Commodores have hope: Pavia is a straight-up gamer. He’s proved doubters wrong his whole life, so why doubt him now? It’ll be an uphill battle, and a good bit of luck is needed for the Commodores to go bowling. For now, I don’t see it happening.
Q. How can Vanderbilt get more out of its wide receiver group?
Oelhafen: Vanderbilt needs more production from its wide receiver core to win games in the SEC. Plain and simple. The SEC has always prided itself on physical, ‘bend don’t break’ defenses, and this year is no different. As Vanderbilt’s gauntlet of an SEC schedule rapidly approaches, offensive coordinator Tim Beck must utilize the vertical passing game more to gain explosive yardage. Luckily, the Commodores possess a more-than-competent wide receiver group led by Quincy Skinner Jr. and Junior Sherill. The pair has combined for 16 receptions and 236 yards through four games, but they really should be getting more opportunities. No other wide receiver on Vanderbilt’s offense has more than three receptions through four games. While Beck has effectively utilized the run-pass option thus far, Vanderbilt must learn how to take the top off of opposing defenses to find SEC success.
David Hernandez, Lead Sports Analyst: The reality is that Vanderbilt fans can not expect a sudden uptick in passing attempts under a Beck offense. The run will always come first, and the passing game will develop through it accordingly. Henry’s point, however, is true: Vanderbilt needs to get the wideouts more involved. This involvement will grow as coach Beck finds creative ways to get the ball in the hands of Skinner Jr., Sherill and Co. The Commodores found success against Georgia State and Missouri when Pavia rolled out of the pocket and found his receivers on improvised plays. This is exactly how Vanderbilt will get more out of its receiving group — keeping Pavia on the move and using screens to simplify the passing game further. Nevertheless, Vanderbilt can’t stray too far from its identity: The grind on the ground will continue. The run game needs to be efficient for play actions to work, but expect the Commodores to craft slick ways to get the ball in the air.
Q. What can Vanderbilt do to limit a talented and aggressive Alabama defense in Week Six?
Jayce Pollard, Assistant Sports Specialist: Not much. If I were on the Crimson Tide’s coaching staff, Vanderbilt would be the kind of offense I would want to face. Alabama’s defensive secondary has looked relatively weaker this season as early NFL draftees forced the Tide to field a younger unit than they would like. Fortunately for head coach Kalen DeBoer, Vanderbilt rarely applies pressure to opposing secondaries outside of one or two trick plays, as we saw against Missouri. Alabama has also already faced a mobile quarterback in USF’s Byrum Brown — and while it gave up 108 yards on 23 carries, it only allowed Brown to throw for 103 yards. I expect a similar stat line from Pavia, but maybe Vanderbilt can give the Crimson Tide the same run for their money that the Bulls provided through three quarters.
Vincent Xu, Sports Copy Editor: Alabama’s defense allowed triple-digit rushing yards in Weeks Two and Three, which should have otherwise been layups for the now No. 1 team in the country. In their Week Two matchup against USF, the Crimson Tide allowed dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown to rush for 108 yards. His performance on the ground showed how a dynamic signal-caller can make games competitive against the Tide — as the Bulls only trailed Alabama 13-14 heading into the fourth quarter. Likewise, the Wisconsin Badgers still put up triple-digit rushing yards without a big-name running back, combining for 149 yards on the ground as a team. At the end of the day, Vanderbilt’s current offensive scheme may be enough to deceive a rather porous Alabama line.
Q. How much of a concern is Vanderbilt’s run defense for the rest of the season?
Oelhafen: Missouri running back Nate Noel ran all over Vanderbilt’s defense last week, rushing for 199 yards and averaging 8.3 yards per carry. The run game beat the Commodores, as Missouri’s offensive line made them look small and disorganized. This was unexpected as, heading into the game, many expected Missouri’s passing game, headlined by projected first-round draft picks Luther Burden III and Theo Wease, to be the star of the show. Having said all this, I still think Vanderbilt’s run defense should be a strong group going forward. Glenn Seabrooks III has been one of the country’s most efficient true freshman defenders, while Demarion Thomas and Yilanan Ouatarra are nice pieces at defensive tackle. Khordae Sydnor is also a difference-making edge rusher, and Vanderbilt’s linebackers are strong, too: Langston Patterson and Bryan Longwell lead the team in tackles.
Xu: Vanderbilt’s run defense might be the deciding factor for its bowl hopes, or frankly, its secondary: Vanderbilt’s defense has many holes. With how it’s looked so far — save against Alcorn State — every game down the line will be a fight for Vanderbilt. Henry mentioned some bright spots on the defense, but discipline and consistency are ultimately missing from the team. A team is a machine of many parts, and one unit’s struggles could mean critical failure for the entire system. Allowing 157 rushing yards to a Sun Belt team is less than ideal, but allowing 199 yards to one player only a week later is unacceptable. With two of the nation’s most dynamic runners, Jalen Milroe and Jam Miller, on the horizon, Vanderbilt may have to wait until its Oct. 12 clash with Kentucky for a chance to show progress in stopping the run.
Q. What’s been the most exciting facet of Diego Pavia’s game?
Pollard: The most exciting facet of Pavia’s game is simply how he plays. He’s a dawg. He’s electric. He’s a gamer. The list goes on. Pavia is not afraid to take a massive hit, always managing to get up for the next play only to take yet another hit on another run play. This is also my concern with Pavia. He’s not facing Conference USA teams like he was at New Mexico State — from now on, he’ll be facing SEC defenders (outside of Ball State in Week Eight). Those defenders pack a heck of a punch, and if Pavia doesn’t find a way to get to the ground more often, he may soon find himself sidelined due to injury. Nobody wants to predict the worst, but if anybody’s predisposed to it, it’s the Commodore faithful. Pavia going down with an injury would be the most Vanderbilt thing possible. For the sake of finally having exciting SEC football on West End, let’s hope it doesn’t happen.
Grace Hall, Deputy Sports Editor: As Jayce mentioned earlier, Pavia’s physicality is undoubtedly one of the most exciting attributes of his game. I would also add that his ability to serve as a spark plug for this reformed Vanderbilt team is equally, if not more, exciting. Not only did Pavia win the starting position after missing spring camp, but he won over his team and the fanbase. Every time Pavia steps onto the field, he is ready to compete and win, and that mentality is now felt throughout the entire program. The only thing that might be concerning is the longevity of this energy: If the Commodores go cold in SEC play, will Pavia’s spark persist or die? I’d like to believe that the former will be true, but only time will tell.
Q. What can Vanderbilt learn from the Georgia State and Missouri losses?
Jonah Barbin, Sports Podcast Producer: If Vanderbilt suffers a third consecutive loss — especially one by multiple touchdowns — the narrative will become one we’ve heard far too many times in recent years: “same old Vanderbilt.” I still believe this isn’t the same old Vanderbilt. This team competes. he Vanderbilt Commodores were quite literally a few plays away from being the ‘it’ team in college football. If two drives went differently, the Commodores would be 4-0 and preparing for an epic, ranked clash with Alabama at FirstBank Stadium. I would be shocked if they were blown out by the Tide, and I expect the Commodores to compete throughout the game. Vanderbilt will be forced to “let Pavia cook“ when passing, as Alabama will eventually learn to sniff out the read option plays that Beck has made his signature. We’ve been waiting for the Commodores to blow the top off some of these defenses, and a high-octane Milroe led Alabama attack might force Pavia and Co. to do just that.
Hernandez: Vanderbilt is still learning what it means to be a competitor. The Georgia State and Missouri losses amplified a quality that every top team in the nation must possess: the ability to finish games. Vanderbilt has to make plays on both sides of the ball down the stretch to secure some marquee victories. If this team wants to be viewed as a truly competitive group, there can’t be any more moral victories. The Virginia Tech game showed that the Commodores can come up big when they need to. For Vanderbilt to sneak its way into some upset wins, it desperately needs to be more consistent. There’s no more room to fall just short of a win.
Q. Who is one X-Factor on the Commodores’ team you expect a strong second half of the season from?
Barbin: He’s a tight end who stands at a monstrous 6’7” and has returned from injury with a vengeance: Cole Spence. If you look at the box scores, it seems Spence, a fall camp standout, hasn’t been a presence for this team thus far. That couldn’t be further from the truth. Beck loves his two tight end sets, and thanks to Spence and his very talented colleague Eli Stowers, the Black and Gold have two legitimate blocking and downfield receiving threats. So far, in terms of receiving, Stowers has been the beneficiary (19 receptions, 220 yards, 1 TD). Spence’s only highlight so far was a 17-yard touchdown thrown on a trick play by — you guessed it — Stowers. As SEC play continues, Pavia will have to rely on his tight ends, not just his receivers. Spence’s physical attributes render him capable of competing with the créme de la créme of SEC linebackers. He’ll be essential if this team is going to find its way to a bowl this year.
Hall: One player I expect a solid second half from is sophomore linebacker Bryan Longwell. Longwell has been one of Vanderbilt’s most consistent and impressive defenders all season, recording 9 unassisted tackles, 18 assisted tackles, 1.5 sacks and 1 interception through four games. Longwell is only becoming more impressive as the season continues, especially in big moments. Against Missouri, he had a career-high 12 tackles, 2.5 of which went for either a loss or a sack. When the Commodores were down 22-10 against Georgia State in the third quarter, he came away with an interception to put the ball back in his team’s hands when all hope seemed lost. In the first game of the year against Virginia Tech, Longwell broke up a pass that resulted in an interception and led to a touchdown drive. The Nashville native will be huge for the Commodores in the back half of their season.
Vanderbilt Football will set its sights on welcoming No. 1 Alabama into FirstBank Stadium at 3:15 p.m. CDT on Oct. 5 for its third clash in three years with the nation’s top team.
