This past weekend, No. 10 Vanderbilt surged past formerly ranked No. 10 LSU, 31-24. Quarterback Diego Pavia cemented his place in the Heisman race with a dominant performance, totaling 246 yards, 3 total touchdowns and completing 63.6% of his passes. The victory propelled Vanderbilt to its highest ranking in the AP poll since 1947 and its best start to a season since 1950.
Now, Vanderbilt will go head-to-head with another SEC team that has its eyes on the College Football Playoff: the No. 15 ranked Missouri Tigers. Last season, Missouri survived a 30-27 overtime thriller against Vanderbilt, but this year both teams have improved, and the stakes are higher than ever.
Missouri and Vanderbilt in some ways represent a mirror match. Both teams have a couple of marquee wins and a singular loss to the arguably best team in the SEC currently: No. 4 Alabama. Additionally, the Tigers and Commodores both work in run-first offenses with talented dual-threat quarterbacks; both sides also possess a stout defense that can ramp up the pressure with ease.
This showdown at FirstBank Stadium will have major playoff implications with both teams fighting for a spot amongst the elite of the SEC. With a sold-out crowd and College GameDay in town, the Commodores find themselves in a situation as intense as they’ve ever experienced. Let’s take a look at three matchups that will be vital for the Commodores to come out on top.
Beau Pribula’s turnovers vs. Vanderbilt’s opportunistic nature
Quarterback Beau Pribula is an exciting story for Missouri. After spending two years as a backup at Penn State, Pribula has excelled as a starter with the Tigers. So far this season, Pribula has completed 70% of his passes, amounting 1,827 yards from scrimmage and 16 total touchdowns. While he is thrilling as a jack-of-all-trades quarterback, there is one consistent issue with Pribula: turnovers.
Pribula has thrown an interception in his past five games, throwing two interceptions in both the Alabama and Auburn games as well. This has resulted in Missouri being tied for 90th in turnover margin, even though the Tigers have been great at overcoming these mistakes to secure victories. For Vanderbilt — a team that turns the ball over rarely and controls the clock — being able to steal a turnover or two off Pribula will limit the possessions Missouri gets throughout the game.
Giving the secondary a chance to make a big impact will come down to how well the pass rush is able to get to Pribula. Keeping Pribula contained and forcing him to get the ball downfield increases the likelihood that he’ll make a mistake for the Commodores to jump on. Through conference play, Pribula has been sacked seven times and was forced to throw the ball away eight times on 41 drop backs under pressure, according to PFF. Pribula went 3-for-7 on balls thrown 20 or more yards down the field with one interception so far in conference play. The key to this game will be making Pribula uncomfortable and forcing him to make mistakes.
Missouri’s star-studded pass rush vs. Vanderbilt’s offensive line
While LSU was the overall toughest defense that Vanderbilt has played against, it can be argued that Missouri has the strongest defensive line that the Commodores will face. The three stars of this rush are senior defensive end Zion Young, senior defensive tackle Chris McClellan and junior defensive end Damon Wilson II. At 6’5, 262 pounds; 6’4, 323 pounds; and 6’4, 250 pounds, all three players are absolute forces to be reckoned with.
The trio have combined for 62 tackles and 12.5 sacks this year, spearheading a defensive line that generates a 41% pressure rate with four or less rushers against FBS teams. Compared to the South Carolina game, where Vanderbilt was able to isolate and target Dylan Stewart, this matchup with Missouri will require a full effort from the entire offensive line to contain a defensive line that can attack from any angle.
Even if Pavia has only been sacked five times this season, keeping him upright and in a clean pocket will allow him to maintain his improved passing ability. Although he’s created dazzling moments when plays have broken down, Pavia just completes 44% of his passes under pressure. Shutting down this pass rush will open up the doors for Vanderbilt to take absolute control of the pace of this game.
Ahmad Hardy vs. Vanderbilt’s defensive depth
Ahmad Hardy is among the most impactful transfers at a skill position in the nation this season. The sophomore transfer running back was brilliant at the University of Louisiana-Monroe, rushing for 1,351 yards and 13 touchdowns as a Warhawk. Through seven games with Missouri, Hardy has burst onto the scene with 840 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns, averaging an incredible 6.0 yards per carry. Hardy is the perfect powerhouse back, blending speed and power with the ability to carry the ball 25 times a game if necessary.
Vanderbilt, while not being an incredible team against the run, does possess a key strength in its depth. The Commodores on all three levels of the defense will come at teams in waves, ensuring that the energy and force of the unit stay consistent throughout four quarters. Thus, the Commodores must use their power in numbers to wear down Hardy. Alas, Hardy will make plays; he has run for 606 yards after contact and has forced 49 missed tackles. Vanderbilt needs to live with the plays he makes but continue to pile on the hits; every tackle of Hardy should involve multiple Commodores. The heart of the Missouri offense is Hardy and if Vanderbilt makes his day as much of a struggle as possible, the likelihood of victory goes up substantially.
No. 10 Vanderbilt will host No. 15 Missouri on Oct. 25 in FirstBank Stadium with kickoff set for 2:30 p.m. CDT.
