The Commodores finally ended their recent skid on Feb. 22 with a pivotal victory over then-No. 24 Ole Miss. After racing out to a 19-point lead in the first half, Vanderbilt once again had a lackluster second-half performance that let the Rebels claw back and take a lead with 10 minutes to play. It looked like head coach Mark Byington and Co. were headed toward another devastating blown lead, but graduate guard Chris Manon had other ideas. The former Cornell player went on a 5-0 run by himself in the waning minutes to clinch a critical win for Vanderbilt and keep the Commodores squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.
Texas A&M is not worried about the bubble as the Aggies are in the midst of one of their best seasons in recent memory. Led by a duo of star guards — program legend Wade Taylor IV and SMU transfer Zhuric Phelps — and a ferocious defense, the Aggies were ranked at No. 7 in last week’s AP Poll and had reeled off five consecutive SEC wins. However, they got blown out by then-No. 21 Mississippi State 70-54 and dropped a home game to then-No. 6 Tennessee, 77-69. Texas A&M has dropped to No. 12 in the AP Poll and will be playing with a vengeance against Vanderbilt. There are three keys to this game if Vanderbilt wants to pull off the upset.
Don’t lose the game on the offensive glass
As has been well-documented this season, Vanderbilt is not a big basketball team. Undersized forwards Jaylen Carey and Devin McGlockton have done an admirable job of filling in as makeshift centers but Vanderbilt still ranks last in the SEC with 20.9 defensive rebounds per game in conference play. This is never going to be a strength, but it also shouldn’t be a crippling weakness. In games when Carey and McGlockton have held their own on the glass, Vanderbilt has proved it can play with anyone.
Unfortunately, Texas A&M represents the nightmare of all nightmares on the offensive glass — the Aggies average an unfathomable 14.6 offensive rebounds per game in conference play. Auburn, the second-best offensive-rebounding team in the SEC with 12.8 per game, is closer to 10th-best Texas (10.9 per game) than Texas A&M. Of the Aggies’ seven players with the most minutes this season, all seven average at least three rebounds per game and five average at least five per game. Vanderbilt is not going to win the rebounding margin but needs to slow down this offensive rebounding storm. If Texas A&M consistently generates extra possessions, the Commodores will get overrun.
Win the game from deep
In better news for Vanderbilt, there is an ugly underbelly of Texas A&M’s offensive rebounding brilliance — the Aggies are utterly dreadful at shooting. They rank 15th in the SEC in both team field goal percentage (41.2%) and team 3-point percentage (29.2%). Taylor IV (33.1%) is Texas A&M’s only regular who shoots above 30% from deep, and even he is extraordinarily hot and cold most of the time. Vanderbilt is dead-last in the SEC at defending 3-pointers (40.2%), so this is weakness against weakness at its finest. If Vanderbilt can limit Taylor’s open looks, it can potentially overcome its most damaging defensive deficiency.
On the other side of the court, the Commodores must knock down a lot of treys. Texas A&M has the third-best defense in the SEC but mysteriously ranks No. 14 at defending 3-pointers (35.7%). Vanderbilt is notoriously inconsistent from deep and must have one of its better games. Star Jason Edwards and sharpshooter Tyler Nickel need to make their share of tough shots while also making good on their open looks. As is often the case for underdogs, Vanderbilt’s best two shooters catching fire from deep is its best path to winning this game.
Can a tertiary guard step up on offense?
Vanderbilt’s outside-the-paint offense — led by Edwards and Nickel — has a devastating tendency to go silent for minutes at a time. When those two go quiet, Vanderbilt needs one of its five other guards to step up and halt the bleeding. Against Ole Miss, Manon was the guy. However, outside of that game, the quintet of AJ Hoggard, Manon, MJ Collins Jr, Tyler Tanner and Grant Huffman have been unable to carry their load.
Hoggard has been disappointing for the majority of SEC play and hasn’t shot above 40% from the field in any of his last six games. The duo of Collins and Tanner have had their moments but haven’t answered the call recently, and the much-maligned Huffman hasn’t scored more than two points in a month and a half. Manon has been much better recently, tallying at least seven points in each of his last four games. In order to beat Texas A&M, one of these guys needs to step up and nail some big shots down the stretch.
It’s crunch time for Vanderbilt. With merely four games left in the season, the Commodores likely must win two more games to prove to the NCAA Tournament Committee that they are worthy of an at-large bid. Furthermore, Byington and Co. have not secured a signature road win all season. This game is a chance to make monumental strides in both those categories. If Vanderbilt wants to spring the upset, it must stem the tide of Texas A&M’s offensive rebounds, get hot from deep and have a secondary scorer make shots when it matters most.
Vanderbilt takes on No. 12 Texas A&M at Reed Arena on Wednesday, Feb. 26 at 6 p.m. CST.
