Right now, the magic number for Vanderbilt Men’s Basketball is two — that’s how many wins it would take to all but secure a spot on the inside of the Big Dance’s “bubble.” Three would undoubtedly seal it.
But, this means having to actually win these games — especially on the road.
After picking up a much-needed win at home versus Texas (86-78), the Commodores dropped two top-five matchups against No. 1 Auburn (80-68) and then-No. 5 Tennessee (81-76). Both losses had dashes of promise, as the ‘Dores held a lead in the second half of both games, but ended in disappointing fashions. March continues to loom closer overhead, and the team still needs some wins on the board to go dancing. The team has to lock in for its next six contests — here’s my take on what needs some fine-tuning.
Holding space for a lead
Consistency is key — and in Vanderbilt’s case, its consistency hasn’t necessarily been in areas it wants to be consistent in. In its last three games, the team has given up significant runs at various points of the two halves: Texas went on a 15-2 run to end the first half, Auburn began the game with a 15-0 run and then went 17-5 in the second half to regain a lead and the Volunteers went on a 19-5 run to snatch momentum back in the second half. All that isn’t inclusive of the 21-2 run that Oklahoma went on after Vanderbilt led by double digits in the first half. In fact, Auburn is the only team of the four that wasn’t in a double-digit deficit at some point in its contest against the ‘Dores.
Coming back from a deficit is completely normal in college basketball — in fact, this is one of the reasons why many argue it’s the sport to watch. But routinely allowing a team to come back after a double-digit deficit turns from just being “college basketball” to a problem that needs to be addressed.
Watching the Commodores lose double-digit leads is almost expected at this point, and all you can do is watch through the hands covering your eyes as missed layups and rushed 3-point attempts lead to one missed opportunity after the other. Although head coach Mark Byington and Co. have had success with their fast-paced offense, it seems to have been volatile recently, and when it falls flat, it falls completely.
“We had our opportunities there in the second half to make the play, make the stop, make the shot, make the free throw — and we didn’t,” Byington said after the Tennessee loss. “I was disappointed in our second-half energy.”
This seems to be especially evident when it comes to the Black and Gold’s 3-point shooting. Take, for instance, the disparity between its matchups against Tennessee and Auburn; although both losses, the ‘Dores were 44.4% and 17.6% shooting beyond the arc, respectively. If the latter percentage had been higher, the Commodore faithful might have seen a third court storm in just one month.
3-point shooting can be volatile between games, but it seems like the ‘Dores are taking a lot of contested shots that don’t seem necessary to try. I’d rather have a solid field goal than a bad look from beyond the arc — the risk isn’t worth the reward.
Memorial Magic is legit
As of Feb. 19, it has been 46 days since a Commodore road win. For some reason, the ‘Dores can’t pull it off away from West End and haven’t been able to since eking out a win in Baton Rouge against LSU. I’m not sure what exactly it is about the home crowd but it seems to add fuel to Vanderbilt’s fire.
The elephant in the room? Vanderbilt is likely going to have to notch an away win if it wants to secure a spot in March Madness.
To do that, the ‘Dores need to have their main guys succeed on the court. This team seems to do things in sync when it comes to player performance; meaning that, if one player does poorly, there usually isn’t someone to take his place.
For instance, when Jaylen Carey is held to single digits, it usually means the game doesn’t go Vanderbilt’s way. That continues to hold true, with away matchups at Florida and Tennessee being the only exceptions. That makes Vanderbilt’s SEC record 4-2 when Carey puts up double digits — and 1-5 when he doesn’t.
Even though Carey’s performance at Tennessee was formidable before fouling out, a couple of other Commodores ran into trouble. AJ Hoggard and Devin McGlockton, two of the team’s top scorers, fumbled: Hoggard’s field-goal percentage was just 25% in that game and McGlockton didn’t put a point on the board.
There were similar sentiments about second-half woes in the last edition of Memorial Minutes, and this problem persists — nothing exemplifies it more than Vanderbilt’s allowance of Tennessee’s 16-point comeback. Rivalry road games are tough for sure, but this issue has reached an extreme.
Where is the halftime hype?
We’ve established that an away win is necessary for Vanderbilt to punch a ticket to the NCAA Tournament — but it’s going to take more than just that. In particular, the Commodores are going to need to play two halves of complete basketball.
When Vanderbilt isn’t outperformed in the second half, it tends to win games. Take just the last three, for example. Auburn and Tennessee both picked up steam in the second half, outscoring the Commodores 46-36 and 50-32, respectively.
The second-half breakdown at Tennessee is the epitome of the Black and Gold’s issues in the last 20 minutes so far this season. Vanderbilt outrebounded the Volunteers 31-30, but just 10 of its rebounds came in the second half (compared to Tennessee’s 20). To boot, the Commodores’ field-goal percentage dropped from 54.8% in the first half to 35.7%.
When the ‘Dores turn the tables, they have a game like the one versus Texas (51-39 in the second half). Since then, this team has not been able to capitalize on the momentum it usually gains in the first half, proving that there’s no way for it to sustain that momentum for 40 minutes. The Commodores can’t just rely on adrenaline and Jason Edwards’ shot-making. They need to sustain success. Byington might have to start giving Miracle-like speeches in the locker room at halftime.
Earlier this season, March Madness seemed like a lock for the Commodores; now, not so much. The Black and Gold have to reinvigorate themselves with the momentum they had in January for their last six contests — anything goes in college basketball, and they cannot take these games for granted.
Vanderbilt will attempt to notch its first Quad I away win in Lexington, Kentucky, as it takes on the Kentucky Wildcats on Feb. 19 at 6 p.m. CST.
