Don’t let the final score fool you: this game wasn’t close. 

Vanderbilt shot out to a 7-0 lead in the opening seconds of its clash with Tennessee thanks to a 100-yard kick return touchdown from Junior Sherrill to start the game. It kept its momentum when CJ Taylor forced a fumble on the Volunteers’ second offensive play and Sedrick Alexander punched in a four-yard score a few plays later. 

The energy in the stadium — at least the sections that weren’t flooded with Tennessee fans — was palpable. Could Vanderbilt actually pull this off? A 14-0 lead with 10:22 left to go in the first quarter was about as perfect of a start as anyone in FirstBank Stadium could have asked for. The Commodores were in the middle of a drive deep into Volunteer territory when the first quarter came to a close as Diego Pavia fired up the Commodore faithful on the home sideline.

Then they fell apart. 

Pavia threw an interception on that drive and the ‘Dores failed to score until the 5:53 mark of the fourth quarter. That’s 43:07 without any points. 

I don’t care how good the defense that you’re facing is, or how banged up your team is: If you can’t put any points on the board for 43 minutes of a game, you don’t deserve to win it.

The same offense that dropped 40 points on No. 1 Alabama in one of the best upsets of the 2024 season has been nowhere to be found since then, and yesterday was the culmination of that. The Commodores’ 212 yards of offense marked their fewest all season, and 63 of those came on a garbage-time touchdown when the game was already out of reach. 

Nov. 30 will be looked at as a disappointing way to end what was an overall positive — and at times, magical — 2024 season. Compared to expectations, year four of the Clark Lea era was an overwhelming success. For Lea to reach the postseason this year — after losing his top three quarterbacks, top three wide receivers and a number of key contributors all over the field — is nothing short of impressive. 

But — as Lea openly admitted after the game — there’s plenty of work to be done. 

“We have to stay focused on how we’re learning and evolving forward and how we [can] improve our play,” Lea said. “[I’m] very disappointed and [have] a lot to learn. [There’s] a lot for me to take away, too.”

If nothing else, this season has taught Vanderbilt that it belongs in the SEC. Lea can coach a winning team, but, like he said, he still has a lot to learn. At the top of that learning list is understanding how to sustain success throughout a game. 

Uneven cooking

Have you ever heated your Thanksgiving leftovers in the microwave and started digging in, only to realize that only part of the plate got hot, and the rest was still ice cold?

How many times have we seen Vanderbilt capture early momentum this year thanks to a big play in the first quarter before going ice cold for a long stretch down the line?

It happened against Virginia Tech when a Glenn Seabrooks III interception set Vanderbilt up in prime position to eventually take a 17-0 lead. It happened against Missouri when Pavia found Joseph McVay for a 65-yard touchdown on Vanderbilt’s second drive of the game. It happened against Alabama after Randon Fontenette housed a pick-six to go up 14-0 in the first quarter. Then again, against Texas, when a Martel Hight interception led to a Pavia touchdown and an early 7-0 lead. More recently, Pavia found Quincy Skinner Jr. for a 63-yard touchdown on Vanderbilt’s first offensive play against LSU to start up 7-0. Then came the kick-return touchdown and a forced fumble against Tennessee that set the Commodores up with a 14-0 lead. 

The Black and Gold’s hot starts aren’t the only thing these games have in common — it’s their cold middle parts, too. Vanderbilt let the Hokies go on a 27-3 scoring run to briefly take the lead in the fourth quarter before ultimately pulling out a win. It also allowed massive unanswered scoring runs from Alabama (14), Texas (21), LSU (14) and Tennessee (29) for them to recapture momentum.

Lea might’ve had the element of surprise on his side during his win over Alabama, but that luck has since run out. With each passing week featuring a questionable array of play calls, I wonder how much of the stale offensive can be blamed on Pavia’s injury. 

Pavia looked explosive during the Tennessee game — perhaps his most healthy since his leg injury against Kentucky. Tim Beck moved away from calling rushing plays on third-and-shorts despite a ground game that looked potent during the early parts of this game.

Then, there was the fourth-and-two, a turning point in the contest. Beck called for a play action, which would ordinarily be fine if he sent more than one receiver down the field to receive the pass. That receiver was blanketed, and Pavia was forced to take a sack, ending a promising drive. 

A part of me wants to believe these offensive struggles are a personnel issue, but playcalling scrutiny has to be considered at some point. Beck isn’t the only one whose playcalling has faltered in recent weeks.

Back for thirds

Tennessee’s offense was unstoppable in this game. Lea’s defensive philosophy this season has been one of bending without breaking. He has built Vanderbilt’s defense to allow short and intermediate plays, so long as those teams don’t go over the top passing the ball or break through into the secondary on rushes.

This philosophy has worked at times, but not consistently enough, and that was on full display against Tennessee. Dylan Sampson and the Volunteers’ potent rushing attack worked the ball up the field in tiny chunks over and over again and consistently left themselves with manageable third downs. The four and five-yard rushes — which Lea gave opposing head coach Josh Heupel all game — broke Vanderbilt’s defense down. Nico Iamaleava and Co. converted 8-of-10 third-and-shorts (1-4 yards) and 11-of-15 on overall third downs. 

Tennessee was only faced with two third-and-longs all afternoon, largely because of Vanderbilt’s willingness to allow short gains to protect against the explosive play. 

The problem with this game? Lea didn’t protect against explosive plays.

Tennessee took the top off of Vanderbilt throughout the game, with an 86-yard passing touchdown from Iamaleava to Dont’e Thornton as a shining example. Outside that huge play, the Volunteers produced eight rushes of 10-plus yards and four passes of 15-plus yards. 

Vanderbilt’s defensive performance against its most hated rival was lackluster. The Commodores couldn’t get a stop at any level, be it in the short, intermediate or long games. 

This development isn’t new. A pair of impressive defensive performances from the ‘Dores against Auburn (7 points allowed) and Kentucky (13 points allowed) shroud an overall shaky defense throughout SEC play. Take away those two defensive performances, and Vanderbilt has allowed 30 points per game during conference play. That’s not considering all of the field goals that opponents have missed against the Commodores — they’re tied for the second-fewest field goals allowed per game (1.0) in the SEC. 

Lea will need to go back to the drawing board on defense, as Vanderbilt will have an extended period to get healthy and prepare for its eventual bowl-game opponent.

Wishbones

The Commodores season is far from over — they’ll wait until next Sunday, Dec. 8, to find out which bowl game they’ll compete in and what team they will face. But an all-important period will begin between that Dec. 8 announcement and Vanderbilt’s likely mid-December bowl game: The transfer portal’s winter window will be open from Dec. 9-28. 

Vanderbilt will be in a completely different spot than it has ever been in. For the first time since the implementation of NIL in June 2021 and the subsequent increased relevance in the transfer portal, the ‘Dores will be playing games in December. They’ll have to balance pulling in transfers while preparing for the postseason. It’s certainly doable (plenty of teams play bowl games and recruit transfers simultaneously), but it’s uncharted territory and will require careful navigation.

Lea and his staff need to heavily use the transfer portal if they want to become a year-in, year-out competitor in the SEC. Vanderbilt has had a special season, but it didn’t quite have the talent to be a true threat down the stretch, and that became abundantly clear over its last three regular-season games.

Let’s start on offense and — for the sake of brevity — assume that Pavia is going to lose his lawsuit and run out of eligibility. That means Vanderbilt needs to find a quarterback; its options are limited. The Commodores need a signal-caller that fits within offensive coordinator Beck’s scheme. One that’s capable of running Becks’ run-pass-option calls to perfection. Pavia didn’t just have the intimate knowledge (two years at New Mexico State with Beck) of Vanderbilt’s offensive playbook; he also had the skillset. He’s fast, decisive and an elite improviser.

There will be options open in the portal — Georgia Tech’s Haynes King, if he chooses to transfer, comes to mind — but Anchor Impact would need to throw a lot of money around if it wants someone of his caliber. 

Would not be surprised to see Vanderbilt / Anchor Impact throw a bucket of cash at Haynes King this offseason.

He’s more than familiar with the SEC 👀pic.twitter.com/jQ2hrfDGvt

— Aiden Rutman (@RutmanAiden) November 30, 2024

Then there’s the pass-catching problem.

Eli Stowers has been great, but it’s evident that teams can take him out of the game and, with it, Vanderbilt’s passing attack. Many SEC teams are known for their game-breaking wide receivers who boast a perfect combination of speed, size and technicality. Stowers might be off to the NFL anyway, which would create even more of a playmaking need.

Whether or not Qunicy Skinner Jr. (a senior) stays for a fifth year doesn’t matter: Vanderbilt badly missed on its wide receiver acquisitions from last offseason, and it’s paying for it now. Loic Fouonji, Dariyan Wiley and Jeremiah Dillon — Vanderbilt’s three transfer portal additions from 2023 — have combined for 11 catches and 123 receiving yards in 2024. 

Sherrill was Vanderbilt’s best offensive player during fall camp, but he hasn’t been able to shine as much outside of his natural position as a slot receiver. He lacks the size to create proper separation on the outside and his production has faltered this season because of it. A true “wide receiver one” could change the complexion of Vanderbilt’s offense. 

Vanderbilt will lose at least three starters on its offensive line as Chase Mitchell, Steven Losoya and Steven Hubbard are all out of eligibility. Those guys were all transfers, so there’s no reason Vanderbilt can’t do it again. 

Vanderbilt’s biggest need on defense is at pass rusher, and that has also become more obvious with each passing week. The Commodores’ defensive line got no pressure on Garrett Nussmeier last week or Iamaleava this week and both quarterbacks made their secondary pay. I praised Lea after his win over Virginia Tech for what appeared to be an improved front with creative blitz packages, but that front has disappeared as the season’s worn on. Vanderbilt needs to bring in a game-breaking pass rusher (or two or three) this offseason if it wants to give a secondary, that will very likely lose both CJ Taylor and De’Rickey Wright to the pros, some help.

I wish I could say that Lea will have time to sit back and prepare for his first-ever bowl game as Vanderbilt’s head coach, but that would be skating around reality. He and his staff have a mountain to climb, and they’ll start their ascent on Dec. 9.