Diego Pavia and Co. will return home on Saturday to face Ball State on West End after two grueling SEC battles — a sensational win over Alabama in Week Six and a statement victory this past weekend against Kentucky. Head coach Clark Lea’s squad delivered back-to-back complete performances, never once trailing in either game.
However, this road victory in Lexington might have been even more impressive than defeating the Crimson Tide. The Commodores could have easily been distracted by the sudden national attention, but quarterback Diego Pavia had other plans — highlighted by both his performance during the game and his words in a postgame interview.
“That ain’t us,” Pavia said.
And he was right — the team came in prepared, energized and hungry for another week in the spotlight. The win marked a milestone, pushing Vanderbilt above .500 in SEC Play for the first time since 2012.
The Commodores are 26.5-point favorites against the Cardinals, which suggests a potentially less stressful outing compared to the first two weekends of October. Still, if this season has taught Vanderbilt anything, it’s to never overlook an opponent. Here’s a look at where the Commodores need to excel to keep the past two weeks’ magic going.
Diego Pavia vs Ball State’s secondary
Simply put, Ball State’s defense is not good. Despite narrowly escaping last week’s game with a win, the Cardinals allowed Kent State’s Tommy Ulatowski to torch their secondary for 394 yards and 4 touchdowns. While Ball State managed to tally seven sacks, its defensive backfield was repeatedly exposed. Knowing the way that Ulatowski and the Golden Flashes exploited Ball State’s defense through the air, Pavia could be poised for an even bigger day.
Pavia — oozing with confidence from his back-to-back SEC victories — is likely to come out firing against a weaker MAC opponent. Expect tight end Eli Stowers to be heavily featured in offensive coordinator Tim Beck’s game plan, especially early on. Pavia’s legs should also continue to be a focal point of the offense. Former walk-on Richie Hoskins, who hauled in 3 catches for 44 yards and a score against Kentucky, could also be in for a big day. The only potentially limiting factor to Vanderbilt’s aerial attack is if the Commodores jump out to a multiple-possession lead early on and shift to a ground-heavy approach, similar to their Week Two clash with Alcorn State.
Vanderbilt’s front seven vs Ball State’s rushing attack
Vanderbilt’s run defense was perhaps its biggest weakness in last week’s victory, as Kentucky exposed vulnerabilities in the Commodores’ front seven. With Miles Capers exiting early with a head injury and Langston Patterson missing the whole game with a foot ailment, Vanderbilt’s defense struggled to contain the Wildcats’ rushing attack. Kentucky racked up 166 yards on 5.5 yards per carry despite trailing for most of the contest.
Ball State’s run game has been inconsistent throughout the season, but it found its stride last week, piling up 191 ground yards on 4.9 yards per carry and three scores against Kent State. Run defense has been an issue for the Commodores dating back to the Missouri game, when running back Nate Noel torched them for nearly 200 yards on the ground. Should Capers and Patterson remain sidelined, Glenn Seabrooks III, Linus Zunk and the rest of the defensive front will need to control the trenches against Ball State. For Vanderbilt, jumping out to an early lead could force Ball State into uncomfortable passing situations, providing a clear path to victory for Lea and his squad.
Vanderbilt’s crowd vs Ball State’s composure
This might be the first time anyone’s said this in a while when it comes to Vanderbilt Football, but its home-field advantage could significantly impact the outcome on Saturday. Often dismissed as a lesser SEC school, Vanderbilt’s recent successes have reenergized the Commodore faithful. After filling the student section in its season-opener against Virginia Tech and again against Alabama, Vanderbilt can expect another strong turnout this week.
As a smaller FBS school, Ball State is not accustomed to playing in hostile environments — Vanderbilt is its only SEC opponent this season. Furthermore, Ball State is 2-8 on the road dating back to the start of the 2023 season, highlighting its struggles away from home. Quarterback Kadin Semonza will not only need to navigate the Commodores’ defense, but he will also need to stay composed amidst the intensity of a lively crowd.
Vanderbilt will host Ball State on Saturday, Oct. 19 at 6 p.m. CDT at First Bank Stadium.
