Vanderbilt Football is at the forefront of the sports world after its shocking 40-35 win against former No. 1 Alabama on Saturday. In their first-ever victory against a top-five-ranked team, the Commodores came out hot and were better all-around than the Crimson Tide.
The game featured standout performances from quarterback Deigo Pavia and tight end Eli Stowers on offense, with the New Mexico State transfers connecting 6 times for 113 yards. Despite allowing 35 points, the defense held strong for much of the game, keeping Alabama’s offense to a 42% conversion rate on third down and off the field for all but 18 minutes.
The energy in FirstBank Stadium was electric all night, with a fully packed student section screaming its hearts out to will its team to victory. Next week, Vanderbilt will have a smaller presence from the Commodore faithful when it goes on the road for the third time this season to take on Kentucky. In their first away matchup against Georgia State, the Commodores struggled to find offensive consistency and committed crucial mistakes that cost them the game.
If Vanderbilt wants to prove that Saturday’s victory was no fluke, it must succeed in three crucial matchups against the Wildcats.
Tight end Eli Stowers vs. Defensive back Maxwell Hairston
Stowers has been Pavia’s go-to option all season, leading the team statistically with 25 catches and 333 receiving yards. The former quarterback’s athleticism was pivotal to Vanderbilt’s success last week, especially on two third-down shovel passes that he took for 31 and 33 yards. The 6’4” tight end is primed for quite the battle on Saturday, as he will face Kentucky’s star defensive back Maxwell Hariston. Hariston led the SEC with five interceptions and two pick-sixes in 2023, and he’s been even better this year as the leader of the Wildcats’ dominant defense which ranks in the top 10 of most defensive metrics. If Hairston can contain Stowers, the Commodores’ offense will be left scrambling for answers. On the other hand, If Stowers can emerge victorious in this matchup, expect another prolific performance out of the now nationally famous Pavia and the rest of Vanderbilt’s offense.
Kentucky quarterback Brock Vandagriff vs. turnovers
Kentucky quarterback Brock Vandagriff started the season off slow — throwing 0 touchdowns while taking 7 sacks and averaging just 72 passing yards in the first two games of conference play. The Georgia transfer was much more efficient in his most recent game against Ole Miss, though, completing 18-of-28 pass attempts for a season-high 243 yards and no interceptions.
The Commodores forced two turnovers against Alabama which were crucial in propelling them to victory. As seen against Georgia and Ole Miss, Kentucky’s potential relies on its ferocious defense being capable of heavily limiting opposing teams’ scoring chances. This means that Vandagriff will put his team in a position to win if he can cut down on the negative-yardage plays, protect the football and rely on running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye. If Vanderbilt’s defensive line can pressure Vandagriff and disrupt his processing like it did against Jalen Milroe, it will allow offensive coordinator Tim Beck’s offense to put the Wildcats into a hole — or perhaps a litter box — that they cannot climb out of.
Vanderbilt’s first three drives vs. Kentucky’s first three drives
The Commodores possessed the ball for just over 42 minutes against the Crimson Tide. Two weeks ago, in their shocking upset of then-No. 6 Ole Miss, the Wildcats’ time of possession was 39:43. Football games are only 60 minutes long, so something has to give between the two of these teams’ ball-holding strategies. Vanderbilt’s offense is at its best when it can lean on the option game, but that won’t be possible if the Commodores fall behind early — like they did against Georgia State.
Similarly, Kentucky becomes dangerous when it establishes an early lead, as it did against the Rebels two weeks ago. Kentucky relies heavily on Sumo-Karngbaye’s bruising ability, but if forced to evolve into a drop-back passing style, as they had to do against South Carolina in Week Two, the Wildcats’ train will fly rapidly off the rails. This weekend, the first three drives for each team are pivotal: Whoever takes an early lead will be able to play their game, control the clock and take a large step towards securing victory.
The entire country will be watching Vanderbilt to see if it can sustain the success it found last Saturday. If the Commodores can win these crucial matchups, they’ll likely pull off their second upset in as many weeks, moving to 4-2 on the season and putting Vanderbilt in serious contention to compete in a bowl game.
Vanderbilt kicks off against Kentucky this Saturday, Oct. 12, at 6:45 p.m. CDT on Kroger Field.
