The Spring 2024 Vanderbilt Poll surveyed 1,003 registered Tennessee voters from April 26 to May 9. With a 3.4% margin of error, the poll found the majority of registered voters in Tennessee to be pro-choice, aligned with gun restriction policies regardless of party affiliation and in support of IVF procedures. Respondents also addressed the 2024 presidential election. The poll found increasing gender gaps between men and women on key policy issues. 

The semiannual poll conducted by the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions is co-directed by Senior Advisor to the Chancellor John Geer and political science professor Joshua Clinton. Respondents are verified using a registered voter list, and questions are asked via telephone interviews using both landlines and cellphones. 

2024 presidential election

The spring poll found that 47% of registered voters in Tennessee prefer former President Donald Trump as the presidential candidate for the 2024 election. This support includes 96% of respondents who identified as “Make America Great Again” Republicans, 74% of respondents who identified as non-MAGA Republicans and 38% of respondents who identified as Independent. Respondents who identified as Democrats showed support for President Joe Biden, with 79% favoring him as the presidential candidate. The poll was conducted before Biden was replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic ticket. 

This poll was also conducted before Trump was convicted of a felony, but the poll indicates continued support for him regardless of a conviction. Forty-two percent of registered voters responded that they would vote for Trump if he was convicted of one or more felonies by a jury, including 88% of voters who identified as MAGA Republican, 67% who identified as non-MAGA Republican and 38% who identified as Independent. The results also show increased support among voters for Trump if he was convicted of one or more felonies compared to the Fall 2023 poll, in which only 37% of registered voters said they would vote for him if he was convicted. 

Additionally, the poll noted a gender gap among voters’ presidential choices. Per the poll, respondents who identified as male said they would vote for Trump at a rate 11 points higher than women, whereas respondents who identified as female chose Biden at a rate 12 points higher than men.

In an interview with The Hustler, Geer noted the implication the gender gap could have on the election as a whole.

“If only women were voting in the state, Trump would have a pretty close race here. He might even lose,” Geer said. “You can see that Trump is really trying to figure out some way to blunt that.”

Abortion and IVF procedures

Tennessee law states that abortions are illegal from the moment of conception but are allowed if there is risk to the pregnant person’s life or health. The poll showed that a majority of registered voters in the state are “definitely” or “somewhat” pro-choice regarding abortion. Eighty-one percent of voters who identified as Democrats were “definitely” pro-choice, while 58% of voters who identified as MAGA Republicans and 50% of voters who identified as non-MAGA Republicans were “definitely” pro-life. 

In 2014, 48% of voters were pro-life and 45% of voters were pro-choice. In 2024, the poll results showed 46% of voters were pro-life and 52% of voters were pro-choice, showing a gradual shift toward pro-choice attitudes. There was also a gender gap in attitudes about abortion policies, with 57% of voters who identified as women supporting pro-choice policies and 52% of voters who identified as men supporting pro-life policies. Geer said this shift may be influenced by the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, which abolished the constitutional right to receive an abortion.

Geer highlighted the influence that political extremes, both Democratic and Republican, have on statewide policies, particularly abortion and IVF. 

“There's a strong consensus that the state should have some exceptions for abortion and that things like IVF are very popular, and the state legislature didn't take any actions on that,” Geer said. “No one wants to try to suggest the state legislature should be liberal, but it should be a little bit more moderate and representative of mainstream Republicans at minimum.”

The poll also asked about voters’ opinions on in vitro fertilization after the Alabama Supreme Court classified frozen embryos as children under the law, which threatened IVF procedures in the state. The Vanderbilt Poll found that 82% of registered voters in Tennessee believe IVF should be legal, including 69% of voters who identified as MAGA Republicans, 80% of voters who identified as non-MAGA Republicans, 94% of voters who identified as Democrats and 85% of voters who identified as Independents. 

The poll also found that overwhelming bipartisan agreement that IVF usage is not a moral issue. Fifty-eight percent of respondents agree that IVF is not a moral issue, including 52% of respondents who identified as MAGA Republicans, 54% of respondents who identified as non-MAGA Republicans, 65% of respondents who identified as Democrats and 55% of respondents who identified as Independents. 

“This widespread support should give the state legislature and the governor a reason to be more active on the IVF issue,” Geer said in the press release announcing the poll results. “It’s clear that voters, regardless of party affiliation, want this option to remain legal.”

Gun laws

There was significant bipartisan support for increasing restrictions on firearm purchases for individuals at high risk of hurting themselves or others. Ninety percent of respondents who identified as Democrats, 73% of respondents who identified as Independents, 64% of respondents who identified as MAGA Republicans and 75% of respondents who identified as non-MAGA Republicans “somewhat or strongly support” such restrictions to reduce the risk of gun-related violence. 

A majority of voters who identified as Democrats and Republicans also agreed that Tennessee laws should not be expanded to allow individuals to carry any type of gun — including hunting rifles and assault rifles — without a permit. State laws currently allow individuals to carry only a handgun without a permit. 

However, the poll showed extreme polarization regarding the issue of arming public school teachers and staff on school grounds. The majority of respondents who identified as Republicans supported allowing teachers and staff to carry concealed handguns — 77% and 71% of MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans, respectively — while the majority of respondents who identified as Democrats (85%) opposed arming school staff. 

According to the poll, respondents who identified as women were more likely than those who identified as men to oppose allowing teachers and staff to carry handguns at schools and to oppose expanding laws to allow individuals to carry any type of gun without a permit. Fifty-nine percent of respondents who identified as women opposed arming teachers, while 58% of those who identified as men supported arming teachers. Seventeen percent of respondents who identified as women and 37% of those who identified as men thought the state should expand laws regarding the types of firearms individuals should be allowed to carry. 

Geer said he believes this gender gap regarding firearm laws stems from a lack of action by the state legislature to regulate firearms after the Covenant School shooting in March 2023.

“Here in the state, because of [Republican] extremism, you have suburban, gun-toting Republican women who want to see some change, especially after the horrible Covenant shooting, and the state legislature basically not only said no, but aren't even willing to give them a chance to protest about it or to express their opinions,” Geer said. “[This] is not very democratic and certainly came as a shock to these women who just wanted their opinions to be heard, and state legislation didn't want to hear it.”

Geer believes that Tennessee's political makeup is not set in stone and will most likely change over time, as seen by former Vice President Al Gore’s political experience in the state.

“In 1990, Al Gore ran for re-election in this state as a senator. He won every county in the state, all 95. Ten years later, he [lost] the state in the presidential election,” Geer said. “Now, there’s a lot of other things that go on, but that’s just as an example that things can change pretty quickly.”