After another January brought underwhelming and mediocre films, the 89th Academy Awards have finally arrived, bringing with them group of critically acclaimed movies that make up for their lack of mediocrity with an irritating sense of self-importance.
Don’t get me wrong, there are some really well-made movies in this year’s Oscar pool, as there are every year. But, I’ve also always found myself put off by the sense of elitism that accompanies the Academy and its selection process, the decadence of the Hollywood scene, and continual snubs that highlight the Academy’s failure to recognize that great films can also be good popcorn movies. At this point, “Oscar bait” movies check off a series of boxes and get released at a certain time of year, and that’s enough to get them a nomination.
All this being said, I find myself always rooting for the underdog in these kinds of situations. I celebrated when the Ben Affleck’s “Argo” won Best Picture in 2013 over movies like hipster romance “Silver Linings Playbook” and the ultimately dreary “Les Misérables.” I enjoyed seeing the unremarkable and pretentious “Boyhood” lose to the far superior “Birdman” in 2015, but was ultimately rooting for “American Sniper.” This year, I’m disappointed the Oscar committee failed to include “Patriot’s Day,” a movie I found to be gripping and well-executed.
Nevertheless, I’m excited for the awards ceremony, and as the Vanderbilt Hustler’s movie reviewer, I’ve compiled my set of Oscar predictions for this year’s show. Since I often have contrary opinions when it comes to who ought to win, I’ve included my selections for who I want to win beside my selections for who I think will win based on trends in the Academy and the strength of this year’s contenders. Grab some popcorn and upgrade to a large Coke, because I suspect after this article you’ll all have a lot of movie watching to do.
Best Picture
Projected Winner: Manchester By the Sea
I can hear the gasps now. “But Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone were so cute together in ‘La La Land!’” “Did you see them dance and sing!” “It was so romantic!” All true, all not enough for “La La Land” to win Best Picture this year. The problem is that “La La Land,” like so many other past nominees, seems to be a movie that Hollywood has generated solely for its own amusement, to celebrate the so-called “craft” of film acting. This has worked in the past with movies like 2012 winner “The Actor,” but it has also spectacularly failed with selections like “Hail, Caesar!” which won the hearts of critics but was panned by audiences.
An Oscar winner usually needs both cinematic craftsmanship and an emotionally compelling plot, and “Manchester by the Sea,” with its breathtaking Northeastern locales and career-defining performance by lead actor Casey Affleck, has enough in it to appeal to the elites in the Academy and audiences nationwide. Director Kenneth Lonergan has been away for a while. His last major film was 2002’s “Gangs of New York.” The Academy will be itching to welcome him back into the fold, and by all accounts, this movie deserves it.
Who I Would Pick: Hacksaw Ridge
Nothing speaks out to the American psyche quite like a movie about World War II. There’s something about seeing a Manichean battle between good and evil play out on a historical stage that reaffirms the patriotism and moral certitude of an audience, and this feeling is only exacerbated in “Hacksaw Ridge,” where our hero (Andrew Garfield) is a pacifist. That’s not to say that director Mel Gibson doesn’t let us know at every turn that war is indeed hell. In doing so, he’s given us a war movie for the modern era, one that allows us to question ourselves and our convictions but ultimately come away with a continued belief in heroism. This, more than any other nominee, seems like a movie that draws from the current state of the collective American mind, and I think it should win for that reason as well as all the others.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Projected Winner: Casey Affleck (Manchester By the Sea)
Casey Affleck’s incredible performance in “Manchester By the Sea” is even more remarkable when you consider that his other major film role this year was the forgettable crime-drama “Triple 9” (now available On Demand!) Affleck is the perfect vehicle for desperation and sadness in this film, and he brings his own career to new heights with the role.
Who I Would Pick: Casey Affleck
Affleck is also a bit of an underdog in this fight, going up against the likes of the charming Ryan Gosling (La La Land) and veteran actor Denzel Washington (Fences). Nevertheless, he gives the best performance in my opinion as well. I’ll be rooting for him.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Projected Winner: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Keep this in mind: Of the nominees for Best Actress, only one (Stone) represents a film that is also nominated for Best Picture. Also, consider: Of the two leads in “La La Land,” Stone carries the film in its more dramatic scenes far better than Gosling. She gives a solid performance in a movie that the Academy will be itching to give awards to, and that should probably be enough.
Who I Would Pick: Emma Stone
But it doesn’t have to be enough. Stone also gives an incredibly solid performance here, and deserves an award after such great recent roles as 2014’s “Birdman” and 2015’s “Irrational Man.” I consider her one of the best young actresses in Hollywood right now, and this would be a great addition to her continuing success.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Projected Winner: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Ali has been rocketing up the Hollywood radar in the past years, and 2016 was no exception. The early part of the year saw him return as political strategist Remy Danton in “House of Cards.” His television performance in Netflix and Marvel’s “Luke Cage” as the Harlem criminal mastermind Cottonmouth was also critically acclaimed. In addition to his stunning performance in “Moonlight,” he gave an underrated supporting actor performance in the Matthew McConaughey-led Civil War film “Free State of Jones.” In “Moonlight,” Ali steals the show as Juan, a crack dealer who takes the protagonist under his wing for a large portion of the film. It’s a dramatic performance and the perfect one to give Ali the recognition he deserves.
Who I would Pick: Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
The above being said, Jeff Bridges gives one of the best supporting performances of the year in the neo-Western film “Hell or High Water” starring Chris Pratt and Ben Foster. While the two lead actors give solid performances, Bridges acts in the understated but bombastic manner perfect for a Western film. It feels like this movie was tailored to his performance, rather than the other way around, and he steals the show every time he appears on screen. The gruff demeanor he shows throughout the film only makes his emotional turmoil at the movie’s end seem more heart wrenching.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Projected Winner: Viola Davis (Fences)
Like Ali above, Viola Davis has been a rising star in Hollywood with her breakout television performance in “How to Get Away with Murder.” In “Fences,” Davis acts alongside Denzel Washington and overshadows his performance in multiple scenes. In her acting, she always manages to bring a unique force and gravitas to her roles. While many of the other performances nominated for this year’s awards could be considered more nuanced, I think through sheer talent and will Davis could come out on top.
Who I Would Pick: Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
I think Spencer’s performance is as good as all the others in this nomination pool, if not better. She’s funny, charming, and delivers us a worthy heroine and idol for young women and girls looking to go into STEM.
Other Picks:
Best Animated Feature Film
Projected Winner: Moana
Who I Would Pick: Zootopia
Best Cinematography
Projected Winner: La La Land
Who I Would Pick: Silence
Best Costume Design
Projected Winner: Jackie
Who I Would Pick: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Best Directing
Projected Winner: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Who I Would Pick: Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Best Documentary (Feature)
Projected Winner: 13th
Who I Would Pick: O.J.: Made in America
Best Documentary (Short Subject)
Projected Winner: The White Helmets
Who I Would Pick: Joe’s Violin
Best Film Editing
Projected Winner: La La Land
Who I Would Pick: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Foreign Language Film
Projected Winner: A Man Called Ove
Who I Would Pick: Land of Mine
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Projected Winner: A Man Called Ove
Who I Would Pick: Star Trek Beyond
Best Music (Original Score)
Projected Winner: La La Land
Who I Would Pick: La La Land
Best Music (Original Song)
Projected Winner: “City of Stars” (La La Land)
Who I Would Pick: “Can’t Stop the Feeling” (Trolls)
Best Production Design
Projected Winner: La La Land
Who I Would Pick: Passengers
Best Animated Film (Short)
Projected Winner: Borrowed Time
Who I Would Pick: Piper
Best Short Film (Live Action)
Projected Winner: The Railroad Lady
Who I Would Pick: Timecode
Best Sound Editing
Projected Winner: La La Land
Who I Would Pick: Deepwater Horizon
Best Sound Mixing
Projected Winner: La La Land
Who I Would Pick: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Visual Effects
Projected Winner: The Jungle Book
Who I Would Pick: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Projected Winner: Hidden Figures
Who I Would Pick: Hidden Figures
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Projected Winner: The Lobster
Who I Would Pick: Manchester By the Sea