The Fall 2024 Vanderbilt Poll surveyed 955 registered voters in Tennessee from Nov. 18, 2024 to Dec. 4, 2024. The poll found an increase in Republican respondents who identified themselves as supporters of the “Make America Great Again” movement. Tennesseeans also expressed slightly increased support for state officials, reproductive healthcare and Medicaid expansion, although there was little movement on other key issues from the spring 2024 poll.
The Vanderbilt state poll is conducted semi-annually by the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions, which is co-directed by political science professors John Geer and Joshua Clinton. The poll canvassed Tennessee residents using voter registration lists, with questions asked through interviews primarily via cellphone and some landline use.
The poll results indicate that Tennesseans’ stances on key issues have generally remained consistent with previously reported findings, with the exception of increased approval for Tennessee state lawmakers. According to the press release announcing the poll results, the consistency in trends since the May poll suggests that the 2024 presidential election had little influence on the fall poll results.
Party self-identification
The poll saw an increase in MAGA support among Republican voters. The May 2024 poll reported 46% of Republican voters’ views aligned more closely with MAGA than the GOP. The latest poll findings reveal that 60% of Republicans now align with MAGA — a 14% jump since May.
Clinton said he has not seen a significant difference in the political labels Tennesseans choose to identify themselves with over time, particularly as “conservative” or “liberal,” but there has been a change in MAGA sentiment following the results of the 2024 presidential election.
“The shift we see is almost certainly a statement about how the MAGA brand has overtaken the Republican brand in the state — especially coming off of a successful election,” Clinton said in the press release. “The policies Tennesseans support and the opinions they express have not dramatically changed since we have been tracking the views of registered Tennessee voters.”
Where 60% of men believed the state to be on the right track, only 40% of women indicated similar views, highlighting a divide in party identification between genders. Eighty percent of Democrats viewed the state as on the wrong track, while 75% of non-MAGA Republicans and 70% of MAGA Republicans believed the opposite.
In an email to The Hustler, Geer said the split in views by gender was a significant point of interest for him.
“The continuing gender gap certainly stands out, as does the fact that Tennesseans collectively are not as extreme as the representatives in the state legislature, which creates a misalignment between the desires of the public and of these elected officials,” Geer said.
Tennessee state officials
The poll revealed a seven-point increase in approval rating for the Tennessee State Legislature since May 2024. Governor Bill Lee and Senator Bill Hagerty’s approval ratings both rose by 6%, while Senator Marsha Blackburn’s rose by 7%. However, these results were not reflected in presidential ratings. Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s approval ratings both remained consistent with previous polls, at 29% and 55%, respectively.
In the press release, Clinton said voters expressed "increased satisfaction" with both Tennessee state officials and members of Congress.
“This is likely an afterglow of the election and possibly reflective of a fading memory of the contentious last session. Approvals have increased six to seven points since the May 2024 poll," Clinton said.
Gun laws and marijuana legalization
The fall poll found strong bipartisan support for gun reform laws among respondents, with a 5-to-1 margin — 78% to 14% — of Tennesseans expressing support for potential red flag laws that would limit access to firearms for individuals that may be seen as a danger to themselves or others. Additionally, 86% of Tennesseans said they “strongly” or “somewhat” support legislation that would require gun owners to report a lost or stolen gun, including 74% of individuals who identified as MAGA Republicans.
Further, respondents who said they “somewhat or strongly support” allowing public school teachers and staff to carry concealed handguns on school grounds rose from 47% in May 2024 to 53% in December. This support was divided along party lines, with 77% of MAGA Republicans expressing support for this legislation while 75% of Democrats said they “somewhat or strongly oppose.”
Geer clarified that although respondents expressed support for change, the poll does not yet show a desire to fully ban firearms.
“Tennesseans favor modest gun reform and have been supportive of modest changes for a number of years,” Geer said. “There is no desire to ban guns, just to ensure more accountability in the use of them.”
The poll saw similar bipartisan support for the legalization of recreational marijuana — 63% of all respondents expressed support while 36% opposed. This support for legalization was found among 53% of all Republicans and 78% of Democrats.
Reproductive healthcare
A total of 53% of respondents said they were “somewhat” or “definitely” pro-choice in the fall 2024 poll, demonstrating consistent pro-choice sentiment with the results from the spring poll. This is a rise from the 37% of respondents who identified as pro-choice in 2012. Among the fall’s pro-choice respondents, 22% identified as MAGA Republicans, 29% as non-MAGA Republicans and 91% as Democrats. There was a difference among male and female voters, with 57% of women expressing support for pro-choice sentiment and 51% of men identifying as pro-life.
Support for exceptions to the state’s abortion ban received strong bipartisan approval: 82% of registered voters believed abortion should be legal in cases of rape or if the fetus could not survive outside of the womb due to medical complications, and 81% of voters said abortion should be legal in instances of incest.
Geer explained his view on the rise in pro-choice sentiment in Tennessee, citing the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022.
“Tennessee is a conservative state, but not an extreme one,” Geer said. “The [Dobbs v. Jackson] decision led many Americans to re-evaluate their views on abortion.”
Tennesseans showed significant support for in vitro fertilization procedures, with a total of 87% of respondents saying they believe IVF should be legal — a 5% increase from the results of the spring 2024 poll. A total of 64% of voters said they do not see the use of IVF as a moral issue, and 24% said they see it as morally acceptable.
Corporate and government healthcare
Voters across the political spectrum largely agreed on key issues pertaining to healthcare. There was bipartisan support for Medicaid expansion, which would cover more low-income and uninsured people, with 73% of registered voters responding in its favor. However, the gender divide in views persisted, with 79% of women supporting Medicaid expansion compared to 66% of men.
A total of 88% of registered Tennessean voters agreed that federal healthcare costs were too high and that the government should do more to negotiate cheaper prices. Eighty-seven percent of voters also believed that costs for prescriptions should be capped for adults with health insurance.
“These numbers are a positive indicator of approval for Nashville’s healthcare economy, which is historically rooted in the provider space — the doctors and hospitals that receive little blame, especially when compared to the other sectors of the industry,” Geer said in the press release.
Other notable findings
The recent poll results indicate that Tennessee voters are significantly more concerned about financial stability since May 2021. The percentage of Tennesseans reporting concerns over having enough money to pay for emergencies, monthly bills and savings has increased by 32, 22 and 42 points, respectively.
Tennessean voters demonstrated increased trust in the election process — a shift since 2020 when only 12% of Tennessee Republican voters believed that nationwide votes had been counted fairly and 15% believed Biden had legitimately won the presidency. The December poll found that 81% of registered voters are “somewhat” or “very confident” in the nationwide election’s legitimacy and 90% feel confident in the Tennessee-run election.
Per the press release, Tennesseans' views on threats to democracy are similarly influenced by the election outcome, as well as political affiliation. Five percent of respondents in the May poll cited no threats to American democracy; this figure increased to 12% in December.
In regard to immigration policy, 84% of voters “strongly” or “somewhat” support deportation in instances where the undocumented person of interest has a criminal record. In the absence of a criminal record, support for deportation decreased to 51%.